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On the Instability of Variance Decompositions of the Real Exchange Rate across Exchange-Rate-Regimes: Evidence from Mexico and the United States

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  • Enrique G. Mendoza

Abstract

Variance decompositions of the Mexico-United States real exchange rate are examined using monthly data on consumer prices and the nominal exchange rate for the period January, 1969 to February, 2000. The results show that the robust result found in industrial-country data that most of the variation of the real exchange rate is due to fluctuations in prices of tradable goods and nominal exchange rates holds only in periods in which Mexico was not under a regime of exchange-rate management. In periods in the sample in which Mexico had a managed exchange-rate regime, the variability of prices of non-tradable goods relative to tradable goods accounts for up to 70 percent of the variability of the peso-dollar real exchange rate.

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  • Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "On the Instability of Variance Decompositions of the Real Exchange Rate across Exchange-Rate-Regimes: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," NBER Working Papers 7768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7768
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    Cited by:

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    2. Parsley, David C., 2007. "Accounting for real exchange rate changes in East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1355-1377, December.
    3. Naknoi, Kanda, 2008. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 645-663, April.
    4. Marco A. Hernández, 2015. "Endogenous Trade, Nontraded Goods and Real Exchange Rate Variations," Working Papers 2015-07, Banco de México.
    5. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Ruhl, Kim J., 2009. "Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 235-249, July.
    6. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods," Staff Report 415, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. DavidC. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1336-1356, October.
    8. Azcona Nestor, 2017. "Exchange rate policy and the role of non-traded goods prices in real exchange rate fluctuations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-18, June.
    9. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2013. "Real exchange rate fluctuations and the relative importance of nontradables," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 844-855.
    10. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," NBER Working Papers 11691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Marco A. Hernandez Vega, 2012. "Real Exchange Rate Variations, Nontraded Goods and Disaggregated CPI Data," Working Papers 2012-05, Banco de México.
    12. Echeverria Garaigorta, Paulina Elisa & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2010. "Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Hong Kong: 1985-2006," DFAEII Working Papers 2010-14, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    13. Gilberto E. Arce & Edgar Robles C., 2004. "The Elasticity of Substitution in Demand for Non-Tradable Goods in Costa Rica," Research Department Publications 3183, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    14. Kanda Naknoi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Endogenous Tradability," 2005 Meeting Papers 857, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "Economic Management in a Volatile Environment: Monetary and Financial Issues by Ramkishen S. Rajan and Sasidaran Gopalan Palgrave Macmillan , London , 2015 Pp. xx+283. ISBN 9 78 137 37151-5," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 29(2), pages 103-106, November.
    16. John H. Rogers & Hayden P. Smith, 2001. "Border effects within the NAFTA countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 698, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Maria Eleftheriou & Nikolas A. Müller-Plantenberg, 2018. "The Purchasing Power Parity Fallacy: Time to Reconsider the PPP Hypothesis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 481-515, July.
    18. Chen, Lein-Lein & Choi, Seungmook & Devereux, John, 2015. "Accounting for real exchange rate changes at long time horizons," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 264-277.
    19. David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "The Micro-foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0306, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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