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The Transition to Smoking Cessation: Evidence from Multiple Failure Duration Analysis

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  • John A. Tauras

Abstract

While much is known about the impacts prices and tobacco control policies have on smoking participation and frequency of cigarette use, little is known about their impacts on smoking cessation. This paper addresses the dynamics of smoking cessation using longitudinal data on young adults from the Monitoring the Future Surveys. Site-specific prices and several measures of clean indoor air restrictions are added to the survey data. Both parametric and semi-parametric duration models are used to model multiple cessation attempts of young adults. The estimates indicate that increases in the price of cigarettes increase the probability of initial smoking cessation as well as subsequent cessation for those individuals who are unable to remain smoke- free after at least one prior cessation attempt. The average price elasticity of cessation is 0.343. In addition, stronger restrictions on smoking in private worksites and public places other than restaurants increase the probability of young adult smoking cessation.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Tauras, 1999. "The Transition to Smoking Cessation: Evidence from Multiple Failure Duration Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7412
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    2. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, 2001. "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: Duration analysis of British data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(3), pages 517-547.
    3. Frank J. Chaloupka & Michael Grossman, 1996. "Price, Tobacco Control Policies and Youth Smoking," NBER Working Papers 5740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, "undated". "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking," Discussion Papers 00/51, Department of Economics, University of York.
    5. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Mathios, Alan, 2000. "Putting Out The Fires: Will Higher Taxes Reduce Youth Smoking?," Working Papers 00-3, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
    6. Douglas, Stratford, 1998. "The Duration of the Smoking Habit," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 49-64, January.
    7. Wasserman, Jeffrey & Manning, Willard G. & Newhouse, Joseph P. & Winkler, John D., 1991. "The effects of excise taxes and regulations on cigarette smoking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 43-64, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hammar, Henrik & Carlsson, Fredrik, 2001. "Smokers' Decisions To Quit Smoking," Working Papers in Economics 59, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Feng Liu, 2010. "Cutting through the smoke: separating the effect of price on smoking initiation, relapse and cessation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2921-2939.
    3. Sergey Arzhenovsky, 2006. "Socioeconomic determinants of smoking in Russia (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 1, pages 81-100, September.
    4. Arzhenovskiy Sergey, 2005. "Socioeconomic determinants of smoking in contemporary Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 05-12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    5. Henrik Hammar & Fredrik Carlsson, 2005. "Smokers' expectations to quit smoking," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 257-267.
    6. Mikael Bask & Maria Melkersson, 2003. "Should one use smokeless tobacco in smoking cessation programs?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 4(4), pages 263-270, December.
    7. Anne Bretteville-Jensen, 2006. "Drug Demand – Initiation, Continuation and Quitting," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(4), pages 491-516, December.
    8. Masayo Sato & Yasushi Ohkusa, 2003. "The relationship between smoking initiation and time discount factor, risk aversion and information," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 287-289, April.
    9. Ryoko Morozumi, 2006. "The impact of smoke-free workplace policies on smoking behaviour in Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 549-555.
    10. John A. Tauras & Frank J. Chaloupka, 2001. "The Demand for Nicotine Replacement Therapies," NBER Working Papers 8332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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