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Do tobacco taxes influence starting and quitting smoking? A duration analysis approach using evidence from a sample of Irish women


  • David (David Patrick) Madden


This paper uses duration analysis to investigate factors influencing starting and quitting smoking, in particular the role of tobacco taxes. Applying a variety of parametric duration models, including a split population model, to a sample of Irish women, it finds mixed results regarding the effect of tobacco taxes. In general the coefficient on tobacco taxes is in the expected direction but in some cases statistical significance is low. The paper finds among other factors education, health knowledge and marital status to be most important with very little role for advertising bans.

Suggested Citation

  • David (David Patrick) Madden, 2002. "Do tobacco taxes influence starting and quitting smoking? A duration analysis approach using evidence from a sample of Irish women," Working Papers 200206, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200206

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ellen Meara, 2001. "Why is Health Related to Socioeconomic Status?," NBER Working Papers 8231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jonathan Gruber, 2001. "Tobacco at the Crossroads: The Past and Future of Smoking Regulation in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 193-212, Spring.
    3. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Warner, Kenneth E., 2000. "The economics of smoking," Handbook of Health Economics,in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 29, pages 1539-1627 Elsevier.
    4. John A. Tauras & Frank J. Chaloupka, 1999. "Determinants of Smoking Cessation: An Analysis of Young Adult Men and Women," NBER Working Papers 7262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
    6. Schelling, Thomas C, 1984. "Self-Command in Practice, in Policy, and in a Theory of Rational Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 1-11, May.
    7. William N. Evans & Jeanne S. Ringel & Diana Stech, 1999. "Tobacco Taxes and Public Policy to Discourage Smoking," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 13, pages 1-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Laux, Fritz L., 2000. "Addiction as a market failure: using rational addiction results to justify tobacco regulation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 421-437, July.
    9. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, "undated". "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking," Discussion Papers 00/51, Department of Economics, University of York.
    10. Douglas, Stratford, 1998. "The Duration of the Smoking Habit," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 49-64, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. David (David Patrick) Madden, 2002. "Setting the appropriate tax on cigarettes in Ireland," Working Papers 200225, School of Economics, University College Dublin.

    More about this item


    Duration; Split population; Smoking; Smoking--Statistical methods; Tobacco--Taxation; Women--Tobacco use;

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies


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