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Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior

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  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

This paper tests for the existence of expectational effects in very disaggregate price equations. Price equations are estimated using monthly data for each of 40 products. The dynamic specification of the equations is also tested, including whether the equations should be specified in level form or in change form. Two expectational hypotheses are used, one in which expectations of the aggregate price level are a function of the past values of the price level and one in which expectations are rational. Under the first hypothesis the lag length is estimated along with the other parameters, and under the second hypothesis the lead length is estimated along with the other parameters. The results strongly support the hypothesis that aggregate price expectations affect individual pricing decisions. The results do not discriminate very well between the level and change forms of the price equation, although there is a slight edge for the level form. The lag and lead lengths are not estimated precisely, but in most cases the lag length is less than 30 months and the lead length is less than 5 months.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 1989. "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior," NBER Working Papers 3102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3102
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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Fair, Ray C., 1992. "Estimation of polynomial distributed lags and leads with end point constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 123-139.
    3. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 169-190, April.
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    1. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Fair, Ray C., 1992. "Estimation of polynomial distributed lags and leads with end point constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 123-139.
    2. Li, Shanjun & Yoo, Han Kyul & Macauley, Molly & Palmer, Karen & Shih, Jhih-Shyang, 2015. "Assessing the role of renewable energy policies in landfill gas to energy projects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 687-697.
    3. Silvia Fabiani & Angela Gattulli & Roberto Sabbatini, 2003. "La rigidità dei prezzi in Italia," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 56(223), pages 325-358.

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