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Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market

Listed author(s):
  • Charles Engel
  • Jeffrey A. Frankel
  • Kenneth A. Froot
  • Anthony P. Rodrigues

We apply the method of constrained asset share estimation (CASE) to test the mean-variance efficiency (MVE) of the stock market. This method allows conditional expected returns to vary in unrestricted ways, given investor preferences. We also allow conditional variances to follow an ARCH process. The data estimate reasonably the coefficient of relative risk aversion, though are unable to reject investor risk neutrality. We reject the restrictions implied by MVE, although changing conditional variances improve statistically upon measured market efficiency. We find that unrestricted asset-share and ARCH models help forecast excess returns. Once MVE is imposed, however, this forecasting ability disappears.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2890.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2890.

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Date of creation: Mar 1989
Publication status: published as "Tests of Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the US Stock Market," Journal of Emprirical Financial, March 2, 1995 (revised)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2890
Note: ME
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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & William T. Dickens, 1983. "Are Asset Demand Functions Determined by CAPM?," NBER Working Papers 1113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
  3. Shanken, Jay, 1985. "Multivariate tests of the zero-beta CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 327-348, September.
  4. MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1987. "On multivariate tests of the CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 341-371, June.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1982. "In search of the exchange risk premium: A six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 255-274, January.
  6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  7. Ferson, Wayne E & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. " Tests of Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Expected Risk Premiums and Market Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 201-220, June.
  8. Charles Engel & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1986. "A Test of International CAPM," NBER Working Papers 2054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
  10. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-138, April-Jun.
  11. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
  12. Frankel, Jeffrey & Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Do asset-demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns? A six-currency test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 309-323, November.
  13. Robert Stambaugh, "undated". "On the Exclusion of Assets from Tests of the Two-Parameter Model: A Sensitivity Analysis," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 13-81, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  14. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
  15. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
  16. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
  17. Gibbons, Michael R. & Shanken, Jay, 1987. "Subperiod aggregation and the power of multivariate tests of portfolio efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 389-394, December.
  18. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Schwert, G. William, 1983. "Size and stock returns, and other empirical regularities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 3-12, June.
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