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Capital asset pricing model on UK securities using ARCH

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  • David Morelli

Abstract

This study tests conditional and unconditional versions of the CAPM using portfolios made up of security returns in the UK over the period January 1980-December 1999. The main objectives are to see if the GARCH betas differ from the unconditional betas, and to see if the market risk premium is positive. The CAPM tests are two-pass, where monthly returns are regressed on alternative beta estimates, and the time series mean of the coefficients is the average market premium. It is found that the GARCH and unconditional betas are correlated, either 0.475 or 0.575 depending on the method used. Using unconditional betas the average market premium is negative, but not statistically significant. Using conditional betas the average market premium is positive but not statistically significant. For some individual years a positive statistically significant risk premium is found. These individual years tend to correspond to periods when the stock market was particularly volatile which would tend to suggest that the model has value during periods of relatively high volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • David Morelli, 2003. "Capital asset pricing model on UK securities using ARCH," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 211-223.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:3:p:211-223
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100110115174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Michele Gobbo, 2006. "Flexible Dynamic Conditional Correlation multivariate GARCH models for asset allocation," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 123-130, March.
    2. Tienyu Hwang & Simon Gao & Heather Owen, 2012. "A two-pass model study of the CAPM: evidence from the UK stock market," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 89-104, June.

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