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Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Karen Clay
  • Margarita Portnykh
  • Edson Severnini

Abstract

Using U.S county level data on lead in air for 1978-1988, this paper provides the first causal evidence on the effects of airborne lead exposure on the general fertility rate and the completed fertility rate in the broad population. Instrumental variable estimates show the increase in completed fertility implied by the average observed decrease in airborne lead is 0.14 children per woman, which is 6.4 percent of mean fertility. To explore the current relevance of our findings, we estimate the effect of lead historically accumulated in topsoil on fertility in the 2000s. The results suggest that lead may continue to impair fertility today, both in the United States and in other countries that have significant amounts of lead in topsoil.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Clay & Margarita Portnykh & Edson Severnini, 2018. "Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility," NBER Working Papers 24607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24607
    Note: CH DEV EEE EH
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel S. Grossman & David J.G. Slusky, 2019. "The Impact of the Flint Water Crisis on Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(6), pages 2005-2031, December.
    2. Clay, Karen & Portnykh, Margarita & Severnini, Edson, 2019. "The legacy lead deposition in soils and its impact on cognitive function in preschool-aged children in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 181-192.
    3. Alex Hollingsworth & Jiafang Mike Huang & Ivan Rudik & Nicholas J. Sanders, 2025. "A Thousand Cuts: Cumulative Lead Exposure Reduces Academic Achievement," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 60(3), pages 950-976.
    4. Jonathan Colmer & John Voorheis, 2020. "The Grandkids Aren't Alright: The Intergenerational Effects of Prenatal Pollution Exposure," Working Papers 20-36, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Alex Hollingsworth & Ivan Rudik, 2021. "The Effect of Leaded Gasoline on Elderly Mortality: Evidence from Regulatory Exemptions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 345-373, August.
    6. Richard W. DiSalvo & Elaine L. Hill, 2024. "Drinking water contaminant concentrations and birth outcomes," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 368-399, March.
    7. Dave, Dhaval M. & Yang, Muzhe, 2022. "Lead in drinking water and birth outcomes: A tale of two water treatment plants," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Karen Clay & Alex Hollingsworth & Edson Severnini, 2024. "The Impact of Lead Exposure on Fertility, Infant Mortality, and Infant Birth Outcomes," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(2), pages 301-320.
    9. H Spencer Banzhaf & Melissa Ruby Banzhaf, 2023. "Impact of in utero airborne lead exposure on long-run adult socio-economic outcomes: A population analysis using U.S. survey and administrative data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(11), pages 1-26, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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