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Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility

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  • Karen Clay
  • Margarita Portnykh
  • Edson Severnini

Abstract

Using US county-level data on lead in air for 1978–88, this paper provides the first causal evidence on the effects of airborne lead exposure on the general fertility rate and the completed fertility rate in the broad population. Instrumental variable estimates show an increase in fertility implied by the average observed decrease in airborne lead of about 6% of mean fertility. To explore the current relevance of our findings, we estimate the effect of lead historically accumulated in topsoil on fertility in the 2000s. The results suggest that lead may continue to impair fertility today, both in the United States and in other countries that have significant amounts of lead in topsoil.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Clay & Margarita Portnykh & Edson Severnini, 2021. "Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(5), pages 975-1012.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jaerec:doi:10.1086/714351
    DOI: 10.1086/714351
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel S. Grossman & David J.G. Slusky, 2019. "The Impact of the Flint Water Crisis on Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(6), pages 2005-2031, December.
    2. Clay, Karen & Portnykh, Margarita & Severnini, Edson, 2019. "The legacy lead deposition in soils and its impact on cognitive function in preschool-aged children in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 181-192.
    3. Alex Hollingsworth & Mike Huang & Ivan J. Rudik & Nicholas J. Sanders, 2020. "A Thousand Cuts: Cumulative Lead Exposure Reduces Academic Achievement," NBER Working Papers 28250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jonathan Colmer & John Voorheis, 2020. "The Grandkids Aren't Alright: The Intergenerational Effects of Prenatal Pollution Exposure," Working Papers 20-36, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Alex Hollingsworth & Ivan Rudik, 2021. "The Effect of Leaded Gasoline on Elderly Mortality: Evidence from Regulatory Exemptions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 345-373, August.
    6. Dave, Dhaval M. & Yang, Muzhe, 2022. "Lead in drinking water and birth outcomes: A tale of two water treatment plants," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Karen Clay & Alex Hollingsworth & Edson R. Severnini, 2023. "The Impact of Lead Exposure on Fertility, Infant Mortality, and Infant Birth Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 31379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N52 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N92 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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