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The Role of Skill Versus Luck in Poker: Evidence from the World Series of Poker

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  • Steven D. Levitt
  • Thomas J. Miles

Abstract

In determining the legality of online poker - a multibillion dollar industry - courts have relied heavily on the issue of whether or not poker is a game of skill. Using newly available data, we analyze that question by examining the performance in the 2010 World Series of Poker of a group of poker players identified as being highly skilled prior to the start of the events. Those players identified a priori as being highly skilled achieved an average return on investment of over 30 percent, compared to a -15 percent for all other players. This large gap in returns is strong evidence in support of the idea that poker is a game of skill.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven D. Levitt & Thomas J. Miles, 2011. "The Role of Skill Versus Luck in Poker: Evidence from the World Series of Poker," NBER Working Papers 17023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    2. Nicolas P. B. Bollen, 2005. "Short-Term Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 569-597.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sumit Sarkar & Sooraj Kamath, 2023. "Does luck play a role in the determination of the rank positions in football leagues? A study of Europe’s ‘big five’," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 245-260, June.
    2. McFall, Todd & Rotthoff, Kurt W., 2020. "Risk-taking dynamics in tournaments: Evidence from professional golf," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 378-394.
    3. Duersch, Peter & Lambrecht, Marco & Oechssler, Joerg, 2020. "Measuring skill and chance in games," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Mikołaj Czajkowski, 2015. "Poker - a game of luck or skills. Review of theoretical and empirical studies and conclusions for law regulations," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 40.
    5. Hergueux, Jerome & Smagghue, Gabriel, 2023. "The dominance of skill in online poker," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Agam Gupta & Yash Khandelwal & Manish K. Singh & Ashutosh Singla, 2022. "Do fantasy sports players' actions influence their performance in Dream11 contests? Adding data to the debate on skill vs chance," Working Papers 17, xKDR.
    7. Brian M. Mills & Dae Hee Kwak & Joon Sung Lee & Woo-Young Lee, 2014. "Competitive environments in fantasy sports gaming: effects of entry fees and rewards on opposition quality and league sorting," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 161-180, August.
    8. Eil, David & Lien, Jaimie W., 2014. "Staying ahead and getting even: Risk attitudes of experienced poker players," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 50-69.
    9. Ben van der Genugten & Peter Borm, 2016. "Texas Hold’em: A Game of Skill," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-13, September.
    10. Rogier J D Potter van Loon & Martijn J van den Assem & Dennie van Dolder, 2015. "Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-23, March.
    11. Madonia, Greg & Smith, Austin C., 2019. "All-In or checked-out? Disincentives and selection in income share agreements," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 52-67.
    12. Jussi Palomäki & Michael Laakasuo & Mikko Salmela, 2013. "'This is just so unfair!': A qualitative analysis of loss-induced emotions and tilting in on-line poker," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 255-270, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • K23 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Regulated Industries and Administrative Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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