IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/10864.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fixed Costs and FDI: The Conflicting Effects of Productivity Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Assaf Razin
  • Yona Rubinstein
  • Efraim Sadka

Abstract

The paper develops a model with lumpy setup costs of new investment, which govern the flows of FDI. Foreign investment decisions are two-fold: whether to export FDI and, if so, how much. The first decision is governed by total profitability considerations, whereas the second is governed by marginal profitability considerations. A positive productivity shock in the host country may, on the one hand, increases the volume of the desired FDI flows to the host country but, on the other hand, somewhat counter-intuitively, lowers the likelihood of the making new FDI flows by the source country, at all. Every country is potentially both a source for FDI flows to several host countries, and a host for FDI flows from several source countries. Thus, the model could generate two-way FDI flows, but not all source-host FDI flows get realized. We employ a sample of 24 OECD countries, over the period 1981-1998. We observe many pairs of countries with no FDI flows between them. Zero reported flows could indicate measurement errors, or true zeroes that are due to fixed costs (in situations where they dominate marginal productivity conditions). Empirical literature on the determinants of FDI flows which uses the Tobit procedure aims at a correction for measurement errors provides nevertheless biased estimates in the presence of fixed costs. By employing the Heckman selection procedure, we demonstrate how to get unbiased estimates of the fixed-costs effects on FDI flows. Controlling for the selection into source-host pairs of countries, and for time and country fixed effects, the paper sheds light on the importance of several covariates, such as income per capita, education, and financial risk ratings as key determinants of volume of FDI flows. While the coefficients of both the source- and host-country average years of schooling are positive and significant in the flow equation, the magnitude of the source country coefficient is more than twice that of the host country. That is, the richer the source country is relative to the host country, the larger are the FDI flows which occur between them.

Suggested Citation

  • Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein & Efraim Sadka, 2004. "Fixed Costs and FDI: The Conflicting Effects of Productivity Shocks," NBER Working Papers 10864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10864
    Note: IFM ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10864.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Gravity-defying trade," Working Papers 03-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
    3. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
    4. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein & Efraim Sadka, 2003. "Which Countries Export FDI, and How Much?," NBER Working Papers 10145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Loungani, Prakash & Mody, Ashoka & Razin, Assaf, 2002. "The Global Disconnect: The Role of Transactional Distance and Scale Economies in Gravity Equations," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 526-543, December.
    6. David L. Carr & James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2021. "Estimating The Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 5, pages 95-110, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Javorcik Beata Smarzynska & Wei Shang-Jin, 2003. "Pollution Havens and Foreign Direct Investment: Dirty Secret or Popular Myth?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-34, December.
    8. James Tobin, 1956. "Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 3R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Zhang, Kevin Honglin & Markusen, James R., 1999. "Vertical multinationals and host-country characteristics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 233-252, August.
    10. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Coury, Tarek, 2003. "Trade openness, investment instability and terms-of-trade volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 285-306, December.
    11. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    12. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1999. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 783-826, July.
    13. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Prakash Loungani & Ashoka Mody & Assaf Razin, 2002. "The Global Disconnect: The Role of Transactional Distance and Scale Economies in Gravity Equations," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 526-543, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guntram Wolff, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment in the Enlarged EU: Do Taxes Matter and to What Extent?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 327-346, July.
    2. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2006. "Vying for Foreign Direct Investment: A EU-type Model of Tax Competition," NBER Working Papers 11991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein & Efraim Sadka, 2005. "Corporate Taxation and Bilateral FDI with Threshold Barriers," NBER Working Papers 11196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Maurico Obstfeld, 2004. "External adjustment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 541-568, December.
    5. Ronald B. Davies & Helga Kristjánsdóttir, 2010. "Fixed Costs, Foreign Direct Investment, and Gravity with Zeros," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 47-62, February.
    6. Fuentes, Miguel & Saravia, Diego, 2010. "Sovereign defaulters: Do international capital markets punish them?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 336-347, March.
    7. Ricardo Hausmann & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Global Imbalances or Bad Accounting? The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations," CID Working Papers 124, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    8. Bruce Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
    9. Guo, Yan, 2013. "Strategic trade policy, cost uncertainty and FDI determinants," ISU General Staff Papers 201301010800004464, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Buch, Claudia M. & Kleinert, Jorn & Toubal, Farid, 2006. "Where enterprises lead, people follow? Links between migration and FDI in Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 2017-2036, November.
    11. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    12. Brouwer, Jelle & Paap, Richard & Viaene, Jean-Marie, 2008. "The trade and FDI effects of EMU enlargement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 188-208, March.
    13. Åsa Hansson & Karin Olofsdotter, 2014. "Labor Taxation and FDI Decisions in the European Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 263-287, April.
    14. Asian Development Bank Institute, 2017. "Asian Economic Integration Report 2016," Working Papers id:11730, eSocialSciences.
    15. Li, Fengchun & Wu, Siying, 2023. "Impacts of home country's institutional environment on OFDI dual margin," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 54-67.
    16. Juann H. Hung & Young Jin Kim, 2006. "Implications of Past Currency Crises for the U.S. Current Account Adjustment: Working Paper 2006-07," Working Papers 17861, Congressional Budget Office.
    17. Garrett, Jinzhuo Z., 2016. "Explaining asymmetries in bilateral FDI flows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 155-171.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Hui Tong, 2008. "Bilateral FDI Flows: Threshold Barriers and Productivity Shocks," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 54(3), pages 451-470, September.
    2. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein & Efraim Sadka, 2003. "Which Countries Export FDI, and How Much?," NBER Working Papers 10145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stein, Ernesto & Daude, Christian, 2007. "Longitude matters: Time zones and the location of foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 96-112, March.
    4. Martijn Burger & Frank van Oort & Gert-Jan Linders, 2009. "On the Specification of the Gravity Model of Trade: Zeros, Excess Zeros and Zero-inflated Estimation," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 167-190.
    5. Dailami, Mansoor & Kurlat, Sergio & Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2012. "Bilateral M&A activity from the Global South," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 345-364.
    6. Andrzej Cieślik, 2020. "What attracts multinational enterprises from the new EU member states to Poland?," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(2), pages 253-269, June.
    7. D. V. Pahan Prasada, 2013. "Domestic versus Multilateral Institutions in Bilateral Trade: A Comparative Gravity Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 127-142, March.
    8. Huang, Rocco R., 2007. "Distance and trade: Disentangling unfamiliarity effects and transport cost effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 161-181, January.
    9. Rabin Hattari & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2009. "Understanding bilateral FDI flows in developing Asia," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 23(2), pages 73-93, November.
    10. Aisbett, Emma, 2007. "Bilateral Investment Treaties and Foreign Direct Investment: Correlation versus Causation," MPRA Paper 2255, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ronald S Wall & Martijn J Burger & G A (Bert) van der Knaap, 2011. "The Geography of Global Corporate Networks: The Poor, the Rich, and the Happy Few Countries," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 43(4), pages 904-927, April.
    12. Ronald B. Davies & Helga Kristjánsdóttir, 2010. "Fixed Costs, Foreign Direct Investment, and Gravity with Zeros," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 47-62, February.
    13. Daude, Christian & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 94-119, January.
    14. Maureen Lankhuizen & Henri L. F. de Groot & Gert‐Jan M. Linders, 2011. "The Trade‐Off between Foreign Direct Investments and Exports: The Role of Multiple Dimensions of Distance," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1395-1416, August.
    15. Zhang, Daowei & Li, Yanshu, 2009. "Forest endowment, logging restrictions, and China's wood products trade," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-53, March.
    16. Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang & Moore, Michael O., 2010. "Location decision of heterogeneous multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 188-199, March.
    17. Mankan M. Koné & Carl Gaigné & Lota D. Tamini, 2017. "Supply Uncertainty and Foreign Direct Investment in Agri-food Industry," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2017-04, CREATE.
    18. Elisabeth Christen, 2017. "Time Zones Matter: The Impact of Distance and Time Zones on Services Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 612-631, March.
    19. Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek, 2003. "Of Openess and Distance: Trade Developments in the Commonwealth of Independent States, 1993-2002," IMF Working Papers 2003/207, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Martina Lawless, 2013. "Do Complicated Tax Systems Prevent Foreign Direct Investment?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(317), pages 1-22, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.