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Investing for the Short and the Long Term

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  • Stanley Fischer

Abstract

If asset returns have different dynamics, then their short and long run risk characteristics differ. For instance, if returns on one asset follow a random walk, it is very risky to hold for the long term even if it is quite safe for the short term. This paper examines the effects of different returns dynamics of assets on optimal portfolio behavior, for Portfolios held for differing lengths of times. It then examines the evidence on the dynamics of stock and bill returns in the United States. The evidence is that bill returns are more highly serially correlated than stock returns. Thus their riskiness relative to that of stocks rises the longer they are held. optimal portfolios are simulated, and it is shown that optimal port- folio proportions are not very sensitive to the length of the holding period of the portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanley Fischer, 1982. "Investing for the Short and the Long Term," NBER Working Papers 0922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0922
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    Cited by:

    1. Stanley Fischer & George Pennacchi, 1985. "Serial Correlation of Asset Returns and Optimal Portfolios for the Long and Short Term," NBER Working Papers 1625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Thomas E. MaCurdy & John B. Shoven, 1992. "Stocks, Bonds, and Pension Wealth," NBER Chapters, in: Topics in the Economics of Aging, pages 61-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Canner, Niko & Mankiw, N Gregory & Weil, David N, 1997. "An Asset Allocation Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 181-191, March.
    4. Peláez Fermoso, Francisco J. & García González, Ana & Gómez García, Jesus Mª., 2012. "Implicaciones del consumo y de la flexibilidad de la oferta laboral en el bienestar de los partícipes de planes de pensiones del Sistema de Empleo/Implications of Consumption and Labor Supply Flexibil," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 1069(22.)-1, Diciembre.
    5. Peter S. Yoo, 1994. "Age dependent portfolio selection," Working Papers 1994-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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