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Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975

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  • Knut Anton Mork
  • Robert E. Hall

Abstract

The energy price shock depressed real output by two percent in 1974 and by five percent in 1975, according to our results. Prices rose by four percent in 1974 and by another two percent in 1975. These conclusions are derived from an aggregate model of the U.S. economy with an explicit role of energy in production. The distinction between expected and unexpected shocks is an important part of the model. We also examine monetary and fiscal policies that might have offset the energy shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Anton Mork & Robert E. Hall, 1979. "Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975," NBER Working Papers 0369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0369
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    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1970. "The Recent Acceleration of Inflation and Its Lessons for the Future," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(1), pages 8-47.
    2. Griffin, James M & Gregory, Paul R, 1976. "An Intercountry Translog Model of Energy Substitution Responses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(5), pages 845-857, December.
    3. Hall, Robert E & Lilien, David M, 1979. "Efficient Wage Bargains under Uncertain Supply and Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 868-879, December.
    4. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 683-740.
    5. Berndt, Ernst R, 1976. "Reconciling Alternative Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 59-68, February.
    6. Ronald E. Findlay & Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, 1977. "Intermediate Imports and Macroeconomic Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 208-217, May.
    7. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Changes in Income Taxes in the Short and Medium Runs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 71-85, April.
    8. Daniel J.B. Mitchell, 1978. "Union Wage Determination: Policy Implications and Outlook," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 537-582.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
    3. Benjamin L Hunt, 2005. "Oil Price Shocks; Can they Account for the Stagflation in the 1970's?," IMF Working Papers 05/215, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Greene, David L & Jones, Donald W & Leiby, Paul N, 1998. "The outlook for US oil dependence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-69, January.
    5. Liu, Qing & Shi, Kang & Wu, Zhouheng & Xu, Juanyi, 2014. "Oil price stabilization and global welfare," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 246-260.
    6. repec:eco:journ2:2017-03-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Park, Chuhwan & Chung, Mo & Lee, Sukgyu, 2011. "The effects of oil price on regional economies with different production structures: A case study from Korea using a structural VAR model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8185-8195.
    8. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2015. "Oil price shocks and domestic inflation in Thailand," MPRA Paper 62797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. repec:eco:journ2:2017-03-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Michael R. Darby, 1983. "The Importance of Oil Price Changes in the 1970s World Inflation," NBER Chapters,in: The International Transmission of Inflation, pages 232-272 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Venus khim-sen Liew & Arunnan Balasubramaniam, 2017. "Oil Price Shocks and Sectoral Outputs: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 38-47.
    12. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Shocks in a Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for South Africa," Working Papers 201652, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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