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Bubble or Riddle? An Asset-Pricing Approach Evaluation on China’s Housing Market

Author

Listed:
  • Qu FENG

    (Division of Economics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 14 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 637332)

  • Guiying Laura WU

    (Division of Economics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 14 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 637332)

Abstract

Rapid house price growth and high price-to-income ratio in major Chinese cities have aroused a hot debate on whether there is an asset bubble in China's residential housing market. To investigate this question, we employ an equilibrium asset-pricing approach, which suggests an non-arbitrage condition on the rent-to-price ratio. This ratio should be equal to the difference between the user cost of housing capital and the expected appreciation in house prices. Using a novel micro-level data set on pair-wise matched price-to-rent ratio collected in the fourth quarter of 2013, and forecasting the expected house price appreciation based on fundamental factors, our empirical exercises do not suggest the existence of a house price bubble at the national level. However, this conclusion highly depends on the expected income growth rate and may not apply to individual markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Qu FENG & Guiying Laura WU, 2015. "Bubble or Riddle? An Asset-Pricing Approach Evaluation on China’s Housing Market," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1501, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:nan:wpaper:1501
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Day, Creina & Guest, Ross, 2016. "Fertility and female wages: A new link via house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 121-132.
    2. Chen, W.D., 2016. "Policy failure or success? Detecting market failure in China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 109-121.
    3. Wen-Yuan Lin & I-Chun Tsai, 2016. "Asymmetric Fluctuating Behavior of China's Housing Prices," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(2), pages 107-126, March.
    4. Helmut Wagner, 2015. "Structural Change and Mid-Income Trap – Under which conditions can China succeed in moving towards higher income status?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 12(2), pages 165-188, December.
    5. repec:eee:chieco:v:53:y:2019:i:c:p:53-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng & Xie, Zixong, 2016. "Are there periodically collapsing bubbles in the stock markets? New international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 442-451.
    7. Xu Zhang & Xiaoxing Liu & Jianqin Hang & Dengbao Yao & Guangping Shi, 2016. "Do Urban Rail Transit Facilities Affect Housing Prices? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, April.
    8. repec:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:9:p:2627-:d:228921 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.
    10. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Jing, 2015. "Cointegration of matched home purchases and rental price indexes — Evidence from Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 80-88.
    11. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:7:p:2386-:d:157026 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Wen-Chi LIU, 2016. "Do Multiple Housing Bubbles Exist in China? Further Evidence from Generalized Sup ADF Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 135-145, December.
    13. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:638-645 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Wang, Yiming & Feng, Suwei & Deng, Zhongwei & Cheng, Shuangyu, 2016. "Transit premium and rent segmentation: A spatial quantile hedonic analysis of Shanghai Metro," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 61-69.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House Prices; Asset Pricing Approach; Rent-to-Price Ratio;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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