IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v46y2015icp376-383.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bubble or riddle? An asset-pricing approach evaluation on China's housing market

Author

Listed:
  • Feng, Qu
  • Wu, Guiying Laura

Abstract

Rapid house price growth and high price-to-income ratio in major Chinese cities have aroused a hot debate on whether there is an asset bubble in China's residential housing market. To investigate this question, we employ an equilibrium asset-pricing approach, which suggests a non-arbitrage condition on the rent-to-price ratio. This ratio should be equal to the difference between the user cost of housing capital and the expected appreciation in house prices. Using a novel micro-level data set on pair-wise matched price-to-rent ratio collected in the fourth quarter of 2013, and forecasting the expected house price appreciation based on fundamental factors, our empirical exercises do not suggest the existence of a house price bubble at the national level. However, this conclusion highly depends on the expected income growth rate and may not apply to individual markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Qu & Wu, Guiying Laura, 2015. "Bubble or riddle? An asset-pricing approach evaluation on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 376-383.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:376-383
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.02.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999315000218
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.02.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    2. Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2012. "Exploring determinants of housing prices: A case study of Chinese experience in 1999–2010," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2349-2361.
    3. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Mishra, Sagarika & Sharma, Susan & Liu, Ruipeng, 2013. "Determinants of stock price bubbles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 661-667.
    5. Ren, Yu & Xiong, Cong & Yuan, Yufei, 2012. "House price bubbles in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 786-800.
    6. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    7. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 531-543.
    8. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
    9. Yoon, Gawon, 2012. "Some properties of periodically collapsing bubbles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 299-302.
    10. Dingsheng Zhang & Wenli Cheng & Yew-Kwang Ng, 2012. "Increasing Returns, Land Use Controls and Housing Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 12-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    11. Gregory C. Chow & Linlin Niu, 2015. "Housing Prices in Urban China as Determined by Demand and Supply," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, February.
    12. Bai, ChongEn & Li, Qi & Ouyang, Min, 2014. "Property taxes and home prices: A tale of two cities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-15.
    13. James Poterba & Todd Sinai, 2008. "Tax Expenditures for Owner-Occupied Housing: Deductions for Property Taxes and Mortgage Interest and the Exclusion of Imputed Rental Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 84-89, May.
    14. Wu, Guiying Laura & Feng, Qu & Li, Pei, 2015. "Does local governments’ budget deficit push up housing prices in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 183-196.
    15. Kim, Bong Han & Min, Hong-Ghi, 2011. "Household lending, interest rates and housing price bubbles in Korea: Regime switching model and Kalman filter approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1415-1423, May.
    16. Zhang, Dingsheng & Cheng, Wenli & Ng, Yew-Kwang, 2013. "Increasing returns, land use controls and housing prices in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 789-795.
    17. Shen, Ling, 2012. "Are house prices too high in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1206-1210.
    18. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
    19. Brueckner, Jan K., 1987. "The structure of urban equilibria: A unified treatment of the muth-mills model," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 821-845, Elsevier.
    20. Shang-Jin Wei & Xiaobo Zhang & Yin Liu, 2012. "Status Competition and Housing Prices," NBER Working Papers 18000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Yang Tang & Ping Wang & Carlos Garriga, 2014. "Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Change, and Housing Markets in China," 2014 Meeting Papers 765, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Guiying Laura & Feng, Qu & Li, Pei, 2015. "Does local governments’ budget deficit push up housing prices in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 183-196.
    2. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2016. "Evaluating the risk of Chinese housing markets: What we know and what we need to know," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 91-114.
    3. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço, 2015. "House prices: bubbles, exuberance or something else? Evidence from euro area countries," Working Papers w201517, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Bian, Timothy Yang & Gete, Pedro, 2015. "What drives housing dynamics in China? A sign restrictions VAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 96-112.
    5. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    6. Mei Liu & Qing-Ping Ma, 2021. "Determinants of house prices in China: a panel-corrected regression approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(1), pages 47-72, August.
    7. Mao, Guangyu & Shen, Yan, 2019. "Bubbles or fundamentals? Modeling provincial house prices in China allowing for cross-sectional dependence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 53-64.
    8. Carlos Pestana BARROS & Zhongfei CHEN & Luis A. GIL-ALANA, 2013. "Long Memory in the Housing Price Indices in China," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(7), pages 785-807, July.
    9. Zhang, Dingsheng & Cheng, Wenli & Ng, Yew-Kwang, 2013. "Increasing returns, land use controls and housing prices in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 789-795.
    10. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    11. Serena Fatica & Doris Prammer, 2018. "Housing and the Tax System: How Large Are the Distortions in the Euro Area?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 299-342, June.
    12. Iris Claus & Les Oxley & Jie Chen & Xuehui Han, 2014. "The Evolution Of The Housing Market And Its Socioeconomic Impacts In The Post-Reform People'S Republic Of China: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 652-670, September.
    13. Gregory C. Chow & Linlin Niu, 2015. "Housing Prices in Urban China as Determined by Demand and Supply," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, February.
    14. Graeme O'Meara, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Reassessment," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 521-565.
    15. Chen, Jie & Chen, Yu & Hill, Robert J. & Hu, Pei, 2022. "The user cost of housing and the price-rent ratio in Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    16. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, housing bubbles and tax policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 555-573.
    17. Li, Victor Jing & Cheng, Andy Wui Wing & Cheong, Tsun Se, 2017. "Home purchase restriction and housing price: A distribution dynamics analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-10.
    18. Shao, Xiaokuai & White, Alexander, 2021. "Outsiders, insiders and interventions in the housing market," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 110-134.
    19. Peng Wang & Xiaoyan Lin & Dajun Dai, 2017. "Spatiotemporal Agglomeration of Real-Estate Industry in Guangzhou, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-15, August.
    20. Antonia Diaz & Maria Jose Luengo Prado, 2008. "On the User Cost and Homeownership," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 584-613, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; Asset pricing approach; Rent-to-price ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:376-383. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.