IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A New Zealand Electricity Market Model: Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Electricity Production and Consumption

  • Lewis Evans


    (Victoria University Of Wellington)

  • Greame Guthrie


    (Victoria University of Wellington)

  • Andrea Lu

In this paper, we introduce an electricity market model and use it to explore the effect of climate change on electricity output and prices. It is calibrated to the New Zealand Electricity Market, and includes multiple generation fuels, uncertain fuel availability, and storage options. The model is formulated in continuous time, which mimics the many short trading periods that are common to electricity spot markets, while properly incorporating forward-looking generation decision making. Specifically, it is used to estimate the effects of changes that may arise in characteristics of fuels -water and gas- as a consequence of climate change and climate change policies. The model does this under the polar cases of a competitive market structure and monopoly. There are three key findings from the results. First, the results illustrate the importance of allowing for volatility and including management of storage in electricity market models. Second, they suggest that reductions in average hydro fuel availability will reduce welfare significantly. Increases in the volatility of hydro fuel availability will also affect welfare, but to a very small extent. Third, the value of reservoir expansion is sensitive to the distribution of hydro fuel availability. Finally, the effects of a carbon tax are also reported.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 10_09.

in new window

Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:10_09
Contact details of provider: Postal: Level 1, 97 Cuba Street, P.O. Box 24390, Wellington
Phone: 64-4-939-4250
Fax: 64-4-939-4251
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Paul L. Joskow & Edward Kohn, 2002. "A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior in California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-35.
  2. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  3. Baumol, William J & Bradford, David F, 1970. "Optimal Departures from Marginal Cost Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 265-83, June.
  4. Borenstein, Severin & Bushnell, James, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 285-323, September.
  5. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2006. "Incentive Regulation of Prices when Costs are Sunk," Working Paper Series 3875, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
  6. Lyle, Matthew R. & Elliott, Robert J., 2009. "A 'simple' hybrid model for power derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 757-767, September.
  7. Miguel A. Espinosa & Alvaro J. Riascos Villegas, 2010. "Strategic Behaviour, Resource Valuation and Competition in Electricity Markets," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 006856, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  8. Guthrie, Graeme, 2009. "Real Options in Theory and Practice," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195380637, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:10_09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maxine Watene)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.