A New Zealand Electricity Market Model: Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Electricity Production and Consumption
In this paper, we introduce an electricity market model and use it to explore the effect of climate change on electricity output and prices. It is calibrated to the New Zealand Electricity Market, and includes multiple generation fuels, uncertain fuel availability, and storage options. The model is formulated in continuous time, which mimics the many short trading periods that are common to electricity spot markets, while properly incorporating forward-looking generation decision making. Specifically, it is used to estimate the effects of changes that may arise in characteristics of fuels -water and gas- as a consequence of climate change and climate change policies. The model does this under the polar cases of a competitive market structure and monopoly. There are three key findings from the results. First, the results illustrate the importance of allowing for volatility and including management of storage in electricity market models. Second, they suggest that reductions in average hydro fuel availability will reduce welfare significantly. Increases in the volatility of hydro fuel availability will also affect welfare, but to a very small extent. Third, the value of reservoir expansion is sensitive to the distribution of hydro fuel availability. Finally, the effects of a carbon tax are also reported.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Level 1, 97 Cuba Street, P.O. Box 24390, Wellington|
Web page: http://www.motu.org.nz
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005.
"A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Borenstein, Severin & Bushnell, James, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 285-323, September.
- Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell, 1998. "An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry," NBER Working Papers 6463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lewis Evans & Graeme Guthrie, 2006. "Incentive Regulation of Prices When Costs are Sunk," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 239-264, 05.
- Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2006. "Incentive Regulation of Prices when Costs are Sunk," Working Paper Series 3875, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
- Paul L. Joskow & Edward Kohn, 2002. "A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior in California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-35.
- Paul Joskow & Edward Kahn, 2001. "A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior in California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000," NBER Working Papers 8157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joskow, P. & Edward Kahn, 2002. "A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior In California’s Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0211, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Baumol, William J & Bradford, David F, 1970. "Optimal Departures from Marginal Cost Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 265-283, June.
- Miguel A. Espinosa & Alvaro J. Riascos Villegas, 2010. "Strategic Behaviour, Resource Valuation and Competition in Electricity Markets," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 006856, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
- Lyle, Matthew R. & Elliott, Robert J., 2009. "A 'simple' hybrid model for power derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 757-767, September.
- Guthrie, Graeme, 2009. "Real Options in Theory and Practice," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195380637. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)