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Threat Effect Of The Labour Market Programs In Denmark: Evidence From A Quasi-Experiment

  • Ott Toomet
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    This paper analyses the pre-participation effect of the Danish active labour market programs on the welfare recipients. The Danish participation rules differ for “young” and “old” individuals. A reform which increased the age boundary between “young” and “old”is used to identify the effect of the “threat” of active labour market program participation before the actual participation starts. We use a register-based dataset and focus on the transition intensity out of welfare. We show that the reform led to a 25% increase in early exit rate for men, which corresponds to effect of halving the benefits. There is no indication that the reform led to exits elsewhere than employment or to lower-quality jobs. The impact on women is smaller, statistically not significant, and partially related to movements to education. There is some evidence that the effect is related to the arrival of specific information (anticipation effect) and it is limited to a number of compliers only.

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    File URL: http://www.mtk.ut.ee/sites/default/files/mtk/RePEc/mtk/febpdf/febawb62.pdf
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    Paper provided by Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia) in its series University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series with number 62.

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    Length: 48 pages
    Date of creation: 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:mtk:febawb:62
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    1. Bruno Crépon & Muriel Dejemeppe & Marc Gurgand, 2005. "Counseling the unemployed: does it lower unemployment duration and recurrence?," PSE Working Papers halshs-00590769, HAL.
    2. Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2004. "Estimating the Threat Effect of Active Labour Market Programmes," IZA Discussion Papers 1300, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Torben Andersen & Michael Svarer, 2007. "Flexicurity – Labour Market Performance in Denmark," CESifo Working Paper Series 2108, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Rafael Lalive & Jan C. van Ours & Josef Zweimüller, . "The Effect of Benefit Sanctions on the Duration of Unemployment," IEW - Working Papers 110, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    5. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097 Elsevier.
    6. David Card & Raj Chetty & Andrea Weber, 2007. "The Spike at Benefit Exhaustion: Leaving the Unemployment System or Starting a New Job?," NBER Working Papers 12893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Peter Dolton & Donal O'Neill, 2002. "The Long-Run Effects of Unemployment Monitoring and Work-Search Programs: Experimental Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 381-403, Part.
    8. John C. Ham & Samuel Rea, 1986. "Unemployment Insurance and Male Unemployment Duration in Canada," Working Papers 592, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    9. Bruce D. Meyer, 1988. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Michael Svarer, 2007. "The Effect of Sanctions on the Job Finding Rate: Evidence from Denmark," Economics Working Papers 2007-10, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    11. Lars Pico Geerdsen, 2006. "Is there a Threat Effect of Labour Market Programmes? A Study of ALMP in the Danish UI System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 738-750, 07.
    12. Richardson, Linda L, 2002. "Impact of the Mutual Obligation Initiative on the Exit Behaviour of Unemployment Benefit Recipients: The Threat of Additional Activities," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 406-21, December.
    13. Bruce D. Meyer, 1995. "Lessons from the U.S. Unemployment Insurance Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 91-131, March.
    14. Dan A. Black & Jeffrey A. Smith & Mark C. Berger & Brett J. Noel, 2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective Than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1313-1327, September.
    15. Ott-Siim Toomet, 2005. "Does an Increase in Unemployment Income Lead to Longer Unemployment Spells? Evidence Using Danish Unemployment Assistance Data," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-09, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005.
    16. Dolton, Peter & O'Neill, Donal, 1996. "Unemployment Duration and the Restart Effect: Some Experimental Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 387-400, March.
    17. Daniel H. Klepinger & Terry R. Johnson & Jutta M. Joesch, 2002. "Effects of unemployment insurance work-search requirements: The Maryland experiment," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 56(1), pages 3-22, October.
    18. Terry R. Johnson & Daniel H. Klepinger, 1994. "Experimental Evidence on Unemployment Insurance Work-Search Policies," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(3), pages 665-717.
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