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Robust Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood method

Author

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  • Zhichao Liu

    ()

  • Catherine Forbes

    ()

  • Heather Anderson

    ()

Abstract

This paper proposes a new Bayesian approach for analysing moment condition models in the situation where the data may be contaminated by outliers. The approach builds upon the foundations developed by Schennach (2005) who proposed the Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood (BETEL) method, justified by the fact that an empirical likelihood (EL) can be interpreted as the nonparametric limit of a Bayesian procedure when the implied probabilities are obtained from maximizing entropy subject to some given moment constraints. Considering the impact that outliers are thought to have on the estimation of population moments, we develop a new robust BETEL (RBETEL) inferential methodology to deal with this potential problem. We show how the BETEL methods are linked to the recent work of Bissiri et al. (2016) who propose a general framework to update prior belief via a loss function. A controlled simulation experiment is conducted to investigate the performance of the RBETEL method. We find that the proposed methodology produces reliable posterior inference for the fundamental relationships that are embedded in the majority of the data, even when outliers are present. The method is also illustrated in an empirical study relating brain weight to body weight using a dataset containing sixty-five different land animal species.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhichao Liu & Catherine Forbes & Heather Anderson, 2017. "Robust Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood method," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2017-21
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    File URL: https://www.monash.edu/business/econometrics-and-business-statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp21-17.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
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    3. Whitney K. Newey & Richard J. Smith, 2004. "Higher Order Properties of Gmm and Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 219-255, January.
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    6. Nicole A. Lazar, 2003. "Bayesian empirical likelihood," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(2), pages 319-326, June.
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    9. Guido W. Imbens & Richard H. Spady & Phillip Johnson, 1998. "Information Theoretic Approaches to Inference in Moment Condition Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 333-358, March.
    10. Guido W. Imbens, 1997. "One-Step Estimators for Over-Identified Generalized Method of Moments Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(3), pages 359-383.
    11. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Applications of Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 87-100, Fall.
    12. Chernozhukov, Victor & Hong, Han, 2003. "An MCMC approach to classical estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-346, August.
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    14. Susanne M. Schennach, 2007. "Point estimation with exponentially tilted empirical likelihood," Papers 0708.1874, arXiv.org.
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    Keywords

    Moment condition models; outliers; misspecification.;

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