A market model for inflation
The various macro econometrics models for inflation are helpless when it comes to the pricing of inflation derivatives. The only article targeting inflation option pricing, the Jarrow Yildirim model (2000), relies on non observable data. This makes the estimation of the model parameters a non trivial problem. In addition, their framework does not examine any relationship between the most liquid inflation derivatives instruments : the year to year and zero coupon swap. To fill this gap, we see how to derive a model on inflation, based on traded and liquid market instrument. Applying the same strategy as the one for a market model on interest rates, we derive no-arbitrage relationship between zero coupon and year to year swaps. We explain how to compute the convexity adjustment and what relationship the volatility surface should satisfy. Within this framework, it becomes much easier to estimate model parameters and to price inflation derivatives in a consistent way.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2004|
|Date of revision:|
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- Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 1998. "Fisher's equation and the inflation risk premium in a simple endowment economy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 53-72.
- Eric Benhamou, 2000. "Pricing Convexity Adjustment with Wiener Chaos," FMG Discussion Papers dp351, Financial Markets Group.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92.
- Jarrow, Robert & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2003. "Pricing Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and Related Derivatives using an HJM Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 337-358, June.
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