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Shrinkage of Value-Added Estimates and Characteristics of Students with Hard-to-Predict Achievement Levels

Author

Listed:
  • Mariesa Herrmann
  • Elias Walsh
  • Eric Isenberg
  • Alexandra Resch

Abstract

This working paper investigates how empirical Bayes shrinkage, an approach commonly used in implementing teacher accountability systems, affects the value-added estimates of teachers of students with hard-to-predict achievement levels, such as students who have low prior achievement and receive free lunch. Teachers of these students tend to have less precise value-added estimates than teachers of other types of students. Shrinkage increases their estimates’ precision and reduces the absolute value of their value-added estimates. However, this paper found shrinkage has no statistically significant effect on the relative probability that teachers of hard-to-predict students receive value-added estimates that fall in the extremes of the value-added distribution and, as a result, receive consequences in the accountability system.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariesa Herrmann & Elias Walsh & Eric Isenberg & Alexandra Resch, 2013. "Shrinkage of Value-Added Estimates and Characteristics of Students with Hard-to-Predict Achievement Levels," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 2b140369be0242ac83eeb5b0a, Mathematica Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:mpr:mprres:2b140369be0242ac83eeb5b0afea95da
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    File URL: https://www.mathematica.org/-/media/publications/pdfs/education/value-added_shrinkage_wp.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jesse Rothstein, 2010. "Teacher Quality in Educational Production: Tracking, Decay, and Student Achievement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 175-214.
    2. Thomas J. Kane & Douglas O. Staiger, 2008. "Estimating Teacher Impacts on Student Achievement: An Experimental Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 14607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Thomas J. Kane & Douglas O. Staiger, 2002. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Using Imprecise School Accountability Measures," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 91-114, Fall.
    4. Stacy, Brian & Guarino, Cassandra & Wooldridge, Jeffrey, 2018. "Does the precision and stability of value-added estimates of teacher performance depend on the types of students they serve?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 50-74.
    5. Daniel Aaronson & Lisa Barrow & William Sander, 2007. "Teachers and Student Achievement in the Chicago Public High Schools," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25(1), pages 95-135.
    6. Heinrich Hock & Eric Isenberg, "undated". "Methods for Accounting for Co-Teaching in Value-Added Models," Mathematica Policy Research Reports e53ebf9f792e48dca345a4bba, Mathematica Policy Research.
    7. Koedel Cory & Leatherman Rebecca & Parsons Eric, 2012. "Test Measurement Error and Inference from Value-Added Models," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-37, November.
    8. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Jonah E. Rockoff, 2011. "The Long-Term Impacts of Teachers: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood," NBER Working Papers 17699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:mpr:mprres:7482 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Cassandra M. Guarino & Michelle Maxfield & Mark D. Reckase & Paul N. Thompson & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "An Evaluation of Empirical Bayes’s Estimation of Value-Added Teacher Performance Measures," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 40(2), pages 190-222, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elias Walsh & Stephen Lipscomb, "undated". "Classroom Observations from Phase 2 of the Pennsylvania Teacher Evaluation Pilot: Assessing Internal Consistency, Score Variation, and Relationships with Value Added," Mathematica Policy Research Reports a6b29a4a217f42a09d5206cfe, Mathematica Policy Research.
    2. von Hippel, Paul T. & Bellows, Laura & Osborne, Cynthia & Lincove, Jane Arnold & Mills, Nick, 2016. "Teacher quality differences between teacher preparation programs: How big? How reliable? Which programs are different?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 31-45.
    3. Koedel, Cory & Mihaly, Kata & Rockoff, Jonah E., 2015. "Value-added modeling: A review," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 180-195.
    4. repec:mpr:mprres:7817 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Value-Added ; Estimates ; Students ; Achievement; Working Paper 17;
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