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Earthquake hazard in Italy Cluster analysis of socio-economic data to inform place-based policy measures


  • Francesco pagliacci
  • Margherita Russo


The Italian Government launched the Piano Casa Italia immediately after the series of massive earthquakes that struck Central Italy in 2016, following the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila and the one in 2012 in Emilia-Romagna. The cumulative impact of human loss-es and economic and social uncertainty produced by the last disaster in 2016 has spurred political decision-makers to advocate an ambitious long-term intervention, aimed at re-structuring Italian public buildings and houses over the next decades. Italy has experi-enced only one other era of similar schemes with the controversial interventions lasting for more than thirty years of the Cassa del Mezzogiorno, which started in the 1950s to cope with the country's dual economic condition. Since then, no other long-term ambi-tious plan has been attempted in Italy and a similar planning perspective is nowadays far from the experience of most public managers, policy makers and even scholars of eco-nomics and development. The ongoing challenges that the Piano Casa Italia has to face are multifaceted: political, economic and social. Challenges pertaining to the agents asked to design the scheme, to implement it and to accept it. The overall perspective of structur-al change will mark its implementation. This paper is a first contribution within a broader framework to outline the conditions characterizing those challenges and the paths of change that will be initiated by realizing the Plan. The paper suggests taking an analytical perspective to support informed policy measures, in four complementary domains: emergency (National Civil Protection), recov-ery (Struttura Commissariale), risk reduction (Piano Casa Italia), socio-economic devel-opment (National Strategy for Inner Areas). The present contribution starts with a prelim-inary step, in line with the Sendai Framework for disaster risk reduction (UNISDR 2015): a detailed analysis of the socio-economic, demographic and geographic conditions across Italian territorial areas, at a municipality level. This work explicitly aims to single out these features, by focusing both on seismic zones and on regions. The paper also returns the results of a cluster analysis performed at municipality level across Italy and concludes discussing some implications for place-based policy interventions.

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  • Francesco pagliacci & Margherita Russo, 2017. "Earthquake hazard in Italy Cluster analysis of socio-economic data to inform place-based policy measures," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0151, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  • Handle: RePEc:mod:cappmo:0151

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Roberto Camagni & Roberta Capello, 2013. "Regional Innovation Patterns and the EU Regional Policy Reform: Toward Smart Innovation Policies," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 355-389, June.
    2. Margherita Russo & Francesco Pagliacci, 2016. "Socio-economic effects of an earthquake:does sub-regional counterfactual sampling matter in estimates? An empirical test on the 2012 Emilia-Romagna earthquake," Department of Economics 0082, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    3. Fabrizio Barca & Philip McCann & Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose, 2012. "The Case For Regional Development Intervention: Place‐Based Versus Place‐Neutral Approaches," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 134-152, February.
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    5. Bertolini, P. & Pagliacci, F., 2016. "Territorial Unbalances in Quality of Life. A focus on Italian Inner and Rural Areas," 2016 Fifth AIEAA Congress, June 16-17, 2016, Bologna, Italy 242317, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    6. Paola Bertolini & Francesco Pagliacci, 2016. "Territorial Unbalances in Quality of Life. A focus on Italian Inner and Rural Areas," Department of Economics 0087, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
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    More about this item


    territorial resilience; process; social innovation; natural disasters; risk reduc-tion; risk prevention; Piano Casa Italia; place-based policies; UNISDR Sendai Framework;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O35 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Social Innovation
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming


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