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Business fixed investment and credit market frictions. A VECM approach for Hungary

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  • Marianna Endrész

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to model the interaction between the loan market and real activity, while financial frictions are explicitly taken into account. The econometric methodology used is VECM. Johansen’s approach is employed to allow for multiple cointegration. Financial frictions are captured by including balance sheet indicators of firms and banks (cash flow and the VIX index) which move the loan supply curve. For the non-financial corporate sector 3 long-run equilibrium relationships were found, each corresponding to a reduced form investment, a loan demand and a loan supply equation, where loan supply is determined by the cost of borrowing, and the cash flow of firms or the VIX index. In contrast, for manufacturing no evidence was found concerning the significance of financial frictions. Impulse response analysis is used to calculate the real effects of a loan supply shock. Various tax measures and the introduction of inflation targeting were found to have significant impact on investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianna Endrész, 2011. "Business fixed investment and credit market frictions. A VECM approach for Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2011/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2011/1
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/wp-2011-01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    2. Schaller, Huntley, 2006. "Econometric Issues in Estimating User Cost Elasticity," Economics Series 194, Institute for Advanced Studies.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregate investment; financial frictions; cointegration; error correction models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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