IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lvl/crrecr/1813.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Credible Warnings

Author

Listed:
  • Koffi Akakpo
  • Marie-Amélie Boucher
  • Vincent Boucher

Abstract

We consider a decision maker who is responsible for issuing fl ood warnings for the population. The population is uncertain about the credibility of the warnings and adjusts its beliefs following false alerts or missed events. We show that low credibility leads the decision maker to issue warnings for lower probabilities of fl ooding. In practice, those probabilities are provided by hydrological forecasts. We therefore use our model to compare welfare under alternative real-world hydrological forecasts. We find that when forecasts include non-realistic extreme scenarios, the economy may remain stuck in a state characterized by many false alerts and poor credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Koffi Akakpo & Marie-Amélie Boucher & Vincent Boucher, 2018. "Optimal Credible Warnings," Cahiers de recherche 1813, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:crrecr:1813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.crrep.ca/sites/crrep.ca/files/fichier_publications/crrep-2018-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Singh, Rajesh & Weninger, Quinn & Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Fisheries management with stock growth uncertainty and costly capital adjustment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 582-599, September.
    2. Weitzman, Martin L., 2002. "Landing Fees vs Harvest Quotas with Uncertain Fish Stocks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 325-338, March.
    3. Robert S. Pindyck, 1984. "Uncertainty in the Theory of Renewable Resource Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 289-303.
    4. Laura A. Bakkensen & Lint Barrage, 2017. "Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics: Going Under Water?," NBER Working Papers 23854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pollak, Robert A, 1998. "Imagined Risks and Cost-Benefit Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 376-380, May.
    6. Sah, Raaj & Zhao, Jingang, 1998. "Some Envelope Theorems for Integer and Discrete Choice Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 623-634, August.
    7. François Salanié & Nicolas Treich, 2009. "Regulation in Happyville," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(537), pages 665-679, April.
    8. Doyle, Matthew & Singh, Rajesh & Weninger, Quinn, 2006. "Fisheries Management with Stock Uncertainty and Costly Capital Adjustment," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12770, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. H. Scott Gordon, 1954. "The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The Fishery," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 124-124.
    10. Rust, John, 1996. "Numerical dynamic programming in economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 619-729, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jules Selles, 2018. "Fisheries management: what uncertainties matter?," Working Papers hal-01824238, HAL.
    2. McGough Bruce & Plantinga Andrew J. & Costello Christopher, 2009. "Optimally Managing a Stochastic Renewable Resource under General Economic Conditions," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, December.
    3. Ute Kapaun & Martin Quaas, 2013. "Does the Optimal Size of a Fish Stock Increase with Environmental Uncertainties?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 293-310, February.
    4. Robert S. Pindyck, 2006. "Uncertainty In Environmental Economics," NBER Working Papers 12752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. van Dijk, Diana & Hendrix, Eligius M.T. & Haijema, Rene & Groeneveld, Rolf A. & van Ierland, Ekko C., 2014. "On solving a bi-level stochastic dynamic programming model for analyzing fisheries policies: Fishermen behavior and optimal fish quota," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 68-75.
    6. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2009. "Optimal fishery harvesting rules under uncertainty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 272-286, November.
    7. Robert N. Stavins, 2011. "The Problem of the Commons: Still Unsettled after 100 Years," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 81-108, February.
    8. Bediako, Kwabena & Nkuiya, Bruno, 2022. "Stability of international fisheries agreements under stock growth uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    9. Poudel, Diwakar & Sandal, Leif K. & Steinshamn, Stein I. & Kvamsdal, Sturla F., 2012. "Do Species Interactions and Stochasticity Matter to Optimal Management of Multispecies Fisheries?," Discussion Papers 2012/1, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    10. Singh, Rajesh & Weninger, Quinn, 2009. "Bioeconomies of scope and the discard problem in multiple-species fisheries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 72-92, July.
    11. Vincent Martinet & Michel De Lara & Julio Peña-Torres & Héctor Ramírez Cabrera, 2012. "Risk and Sustainability: Assessing Fisheries Management Strategies," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-11, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Diana Dijk & Eligius M. T. Hendrix & Rene Haijema & Rolf A. Groeneveld & Ekko C. Ierland, 2017. "An Adjustment Restriction on Fish Quota: Resource Rents, Overcapacity and Recovery of Fish Stock," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(2), pages 203-230, June.
    13. Richard Carson & Clive Granger & Jeremy Jackson & Wolfram Schlenker, 2009. "Fisheries Management Under Cyclical Population Dynamics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 379-410, March.
    14. Leizarowitz, Arie & Tsur, Yacov, 2012. "Renewable resource management with stochastic recharge and environmental threats," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 736-753.
    15. Nicolas Sanz & Bassirou Diop, 2022. "Endogenous catch per unit effort and congestion externalities between vessels in a search‐matching model: Evidence from the French Guiana shrimp fishery," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 838-853, July.
    16. Vincent Martinet & Julio Peña-Torres & Michel Lara & Hector Ramírez C., 2016. "Risk and Sustainability: Assessing Fishery Management Strategies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(4), pages 683-707, August.
    17. Fishman, Ram & B Krishnamurthy, Chandra Kiran, 2021. "An ecological golden rule," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Holland, Daniel S. & Herrera, Guillermo E., 2012. "The impact of age structure, uncertainty, and asymmetric spatial dynamics on regulatory performance in a fishery metapopulation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 207-218.
    19. Cairns, Robert D. & Martinet, Vincent, 2021. "Growth and long-run sustainability," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 381-402, August.
    20. Eihab Fathelrahman & Aydin Basarir & Mohamed Gheblawi & Sherin Sherif & James Ascough, 2014. "Economic Risk and Efficiency Assessment of Fisheries in Abu-Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE): A Stochastic Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-21, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flood warnings; Renewable resource management; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lvl:crrecr:1813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/crrepca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Manuel Paradis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/crrepca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.