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Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Latvia

  • Viktors Ajevskis

    (Bank of Latvia)

The paper considers interrelation between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Latvia. The monthly growth in CPI in the period from January 1994 to June 2007 has been used as an inflation measure. The application of the GARCH-M model with lagged inflation in GARCH equation proves that a positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty does exist. It suggests that increased inflation uncertainty raises inflation, and, vice versa, increased inflation is a cause for higher uncertainty about inflation in the future.

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Paper provided by Latvijas Banka in its series Working Papers with number 2007/04.

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Date of creation: 21 Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200704
Contact details of provider: Postal: K. Valdemara iela 2a, LV-1050 Riga
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Web page: https://www.bank.lv/
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  1. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  2. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  3. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  4. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
  5. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
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