Causes of Financial Instability: Don’t Forget Finance
Given the economy's complex behavior and sudden transitions as evidenced in the 2007–08 crisis, agent-based models are widely considered a promising alternative to current macroeconomic practice dominated by DSGE models. Their failure is commonly interpreted as a failure to incorporate heterogeneous interacting agents. This paper explains that complex behavior and sudden transitions also arise from the economy's financial structure as reflected in its balance sheets, not just from heterogeneous interacting agents. It introduces "flow-of-funds" and "accounting" models, which were preeminent in successful anticipations of the recent crisis. In illustration, a simple balance-sheet model of the economy is developed to demonstrate that nonlinear behavior and sudden transition may arise from the economy’s balance-sheet structure, even without any microfoundations. The paper concludes by discussing one recent example of combining flow-of-funds and agent-based models. This appears a promising avenue for future research.
References listed on IDEAS
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- Till van Treeck, 2009.
"A synthetic, stock--flow consistent macroeconomic model of 'financialisation',"
Cambridge Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 467-493, May.
- Till van Treeck, 2007. "A Synthetic, Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Model of Financialisation," IMK Working Paper 06-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
- Claudio H. Dos Santos & Gennaro Zezza, 2008. "A Simplified, 'Benchmark', Stock-Flow Consistent Post-Keynesian Growth Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 441-478, 07.
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