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Euro Interest Rate Swap Yields: A GARCH Analysis

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  • Tanweer Akram
  • Khawaja Mamun

Abstract

This paper models the month-over-month change in euro-denominated (EUR) long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the change in the short-term interest rate has an economically and statistically significant effect on the change in EUR swap yields of different maturity tenors, after controlling for various macroeconomic and financial variables, such as the month-over-month change in inflation or core inflation and the growth of industrial production, and the percentage change in the equity price index, the exchange rate, and the size of the European Central Bank's (ECB) balance sheet. It uses a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) approach to model the dynamics of the monthly change in EUR swap yields and their volatility. The results of the estimated models of EUR swap yields of different maturity tenors extend the Keynesian view that the central bank's monetary policy actions have a decisive influence on long-term government bond yields and long-term market interest rates, primarily through their effects on the current short-term interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanweer Akram & Khawaja Mamun, 2023. "Euro Interest Rate Swap Yields: A GARCH Analysis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_1034, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1034
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2017. "The Dynamics Of Government Bond Yields In The Euro Zone," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2017. "The Dynamics of Government Bond Yields in the Eurozone," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_889, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Scott T. Fullwiler, 2006. "Setting interest rates in the modern money era," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 496-525.
    5. repec:cup:jfinqa:v:46:y:2011:i:06:p:1727-1754_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    7. Sven Klingler & Suresh Sundaresan, 2019. "An Explanation of Negative Swap Spreads: Demand for Duration from Underfunded Pension Plans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 675-710, April.
    8. Chernenko, Sergey & Faulkender, Michael, 2011. "The Two Sides of Derivatives Usage: Hedging and Speculating with Interest Rate Swaps," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(6), pages 1727-1754, December.
    9. Steven Cook, 2008. "Econometric analysis of interest rate pass-through," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 249-251.
    10. Dalla Fontana, Silvia & Holz auf der Heide, Marco & Pelizzon, Loriana & Scheicher, Martin, 2019. "The anatomy of the euro area interest rate swap market," Working Paper Series 2242, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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