Destabilizing an Unstable Economy
Our latest strategic analysis reveals that the US economy remains fragile because of three persistent structural issues: weak demand for US exports, fiscal conservatism, and a four-decade trend in rising income inequality. It also faces risks from stagnation in the economies of the United States' trading partners, appreciation of the dollar, and a contraction in asset prices. The authors provide a baseline and three alternative medium-term scenarios using the Levy Institute's stock-flow consistent macro model: a dollar appreciation and reduced growth in US trading partners scenario; a stock market correction scenario; and a third scenario combining scenarios 1 and 2. The baseline scenario shows that future growth will depend on an increase in private sector indebtedness, while the remaining scenarios underscore the linkages between a fragile US recovery and instability in the global economy.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2015. "Fiscal Austerity, Dollar Appreciation, and Maldistribution Will Derail the US Economy," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_may_15, Levy Economics Institute.
- Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015.
"Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage,"
CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
- Robert N McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," BIS Working Papers 483, Bank for International Settlements.
- Edward N. Wolff & Ajit Zacharias & Thomas Masterson, 2012. "Trends In American Living Standards And Inequality, 1959–2007," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(2), pages 197-232, 06.
- Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza & Greg Hannsgen, 2014. "Is Rising Inequality a Hindrance to the US Economic Recovery?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_apr_14, Levy Economics Institute.
- Michalis Nikiforos, 2015. "A Nonbehavioral Theory of Saving," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_844, Levy Economics Institute.
- Wynne Godley, 1999. "Seven Unsustainable Processes: Medium-Term Prospects and Policies for the United States and the World," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive 99-10, Levy Economics Institute. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_mar_16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie-Celeste Edwards)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.