IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levysa/sa_jan_20.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Prospects and Challenges for the US Economy: 2020 and Beyond

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou
  • Michalis Nikiforos
  • Gennaro Zezza

Abstract

This Strategic Analysis examines the US economy's prospects for 2020-23 and the risks that lie ahead. The baseline projection generated by the Levy Institute's stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model shows that, given current fiscal arrangements and the slowdown in the global economy, the pace of the US recovery will slacken somewhat, with a growth rate that will average 1.5 percent over the next several years. The authors then point to three factors that can derail this already weak baseline trajectory: (1) an overvalued stock market; (2) evidence that the corporate sector's balance sheets are more fragile than they have ever been in the postwar period; and (3) risks in the foreign sector stemming from the slowdown of the global economy, an overvalued dollar, and the current administration's erratic trade policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2020. "Prospects and Challenges for the US Economy: 2020 and Beyond," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_jan_20, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_jan_20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/sa_jan_20.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2016. "Destabilizing an Unstable Economy," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_mar_16, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2015. "Fiscal Austerity, Dollar Appreciation, and Maldistribution Will Derail the US Economy," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_may_15, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Congressional Budget Office, 2019. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029," Reports 54918, Congressional Budget Office.
    4. Claudio H. Dos Santos & Anwar M. Shaikh & Gennaro Zezza, 2003. "Measures of the Real GDP of U.S. Trading Partners: Methodology and Results," International Trade 0309021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "The Trump Effect: Is This Time Different?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_apr_17, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Congressional Budget Office, 2019. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029," Reports 55551, Congressional Budget Office.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2019. "Can Redistribution Help Build a More Stable Economy?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_4_19, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Michaelis Nikiforos, 2018. "Distribution-led growth through methodological lenses," FMM Working Paper 24-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Gennaro Zezza & Michalis Nikiforos, 2017. "Stock-flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," EcoMod2017 10762, EcoMod.
    4. Carroll, Daniel R. & Hur, Sewon, 2020. "On the heterogeneous welfare gains and losses from trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-16.
    5. Steven Byers & Jeff Ferry, 2019. "Decoupling from China: an economic analysis of the impact on the U.S. economy of a permanent tariff on Chinese imports," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 248-256, October.
    6. Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock†Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1204-1239, December.
    7. Flavia Dantas & L. Randall Wray, 2017. "Full Employment: Are We There Yet?," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_142, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Òscar Jordà & Chitra Marti & Fernanda Nechio & Eric Tallman, 2019. "Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "The Trump Effect: Is This Time Different?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_apr_17, Levy Economics Institute.
    10. James W. Douglas & Ringa Raudla, 2020. "Who is Afraid of the Big Bad Debt? A Modern Money Theory Perspective on Federal Deficits and Debt," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 6-25, September.
    11. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
    12. Zeida, Teegawende H., 2019. "On the corporate tax reform: Coordination and trade-offs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2018. "'America First,' Fiscal Policy, and Financial Stability," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_apr_18, Levy Economics Institute.
    14. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    15. Gale, William G., 2019. "Fiscal policy with high debt and low interest rates," MPRA Paper 99207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Bruce Fallick & Christopher L. Foote, 2022. "The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States," Working Papers 22-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    17. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    18. Jan Kregel, 2017. "The Concert of Interests in the Age of Trump," Economics Policy Note Archive 17-2, Levy Economics Institute.
    19. Eugene Steuerle, 2019. "The third post-world war II wealth bubble," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 108-113, April.
    20. Mindy Herzfeld, 2021. "Designing international tax reform: lessons from TCJA," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1163-1187, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_jan_20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Elizabeth Dunn (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.levyinstitute.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.