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An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit for 2019 will be $960 billion. Under current law, budget deficits are projected to average $1.2 trillion a year between 2020 and 2029, boosting debt held by the public to 95 percent of GDP in that year—its highest level since just after World War II. Economic output is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019, supporting strong labor market conditions that feature low unemployment and rising wages. After 2019, in CBO’s projections, economic growth averages 1.8 percent per year, which is less than the historical average.

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  • Congressional Budget Office, 2019. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029," Reports 55551, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:report:55551
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-08/55551-CBO-outlook-update_0.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    2. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
    3. Carroll, Daniel R. & Hur, Sewon, 2020. "On the heterogeneous welfare gains and losses from trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-16.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Chitra Marti & Fernanda Nechio & Eric Tallman, 2019. "Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Bruce Fallick & Christopher L. Foote, 2022. "The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States," Working Papers 22-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Zeida, Teegawende H., 2019. "On the corporate tax reform: Coordination and trade-offs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Eugene Steuerle, 2019. "The third post-world war II wealth bubble," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 108-113, April.
    8. Gale, William G., 2019. "Fiscal policy with high debt and low interest rates," MPRA Paper 99207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lerman, Robert I. & Loprest, Pamela J. & Kuehn, Daniel, 2020. "Training for Jobs of the Future: Improving Access, Certifying Skills, and Expanding Apprenticeship," IZA Policy Papers 166, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Steven Byers & Jeff Ferry, 2019. "Decoupling from China: an economic analysis of the impact on the U.S. economy of a permanent tariff on Chinese imports," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 248-256, October.
    11. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2020. "Prospects and Challenges for the US Economy: 2020 and Beyond," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_jan_20, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920, February.
    13. Mindy Herzfeld, 2021. "Designing international tax reform: lessons from TCJA," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1163-1187, October.
    14. James W. Douglas & Ringa Raudla, 2020. "Who is Afraid of the Big Bad Debt? A Modern Money Theory Perspective on Federal Deficits and Debt," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 6-25, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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