IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/levysa/sa_mar_13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is the Link between Output and Jobs Broken?

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou
  • Greg Hannsgen
  • Michalis Nikiforos

Abstract

As this report goes to press, the official unemployment rate remains tragically elevated, compared even to rates at similar points in previous recoveries. The US economy seems once again to be in a "jobless recovery," though the unemployment rate has been steadily declining for years. At the same time, fiscal austerity has arrived, with the implementation of the sequester cuts, following tax increases and the ending of emergency extended unemployment benefits just two months ago. Our new report provides medium-term projections of employment and economic growth under four different scenarios. The baseline scenario starts by assuming the same growth rates and government deficits as the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) baseline projection from earlier this year. The result is a new surge of the unemployment rate to nearly 8 percent in the third quarter of this year, followed by a very gradual new recovery. Scenarios 1 and 2 seek to reach unemployment-rate goals of 6.5 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively, by the end of next year, using new fiscal stimulus. We find in these simulations that reaching the goals requires large amounts of fiscal stimulus, compared to the CBO baseline. For example, in order to reach 5.5 percent unemployment in 2014, scenario 2 assumes 11 percent growth in inflation-adjusted government spending and transfers, along with lower taxes. As an alternative, scenario 3 adds an extra increase to growth abroad and to private borrowing, along with the same amount of fiscal stimulus as in scenario 1. In this last scenario of the report, the unemployment rate finally pierces the 5.5 percent threshold from the previous scenario in the third quarter of 2015. We conclude with some thoughts about how such an increase in demand from all three sectors—government, private, and external—might be realistically obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen & Michalis Nikiforos, 2013. "Is the Link between Output and Jobs Broken?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_mar_13, Levy Economics Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_mar_13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/sa_3_13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Greg Hannsgen & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, 2012. "Fiscal Traps and Macro Policy after the Eurozone Crisis," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_127, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Wynne Godley & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Gennaro Zezza, 2008. "Prospects for the U.S. and the World -- A Crisis That Conventional Remedies Cannot Resolve," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_dec_08, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Rania Antonopoulos & Kijong Kim & Tom Masterson & Ajit Zacharias, 2010. "Investing in Care: A Strategy for Effective and Equitable Job Creation," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_610, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen & Gennaro Zezza, 2011. "Jobless Recovery Is No Recovery: Prospects for the US Economy," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_mar_11, Levy Economics Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_891, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Fernando Rios-Avila, 2015. "A Decade of Declining Wages: From Bad to Worse," Economics Policy Note Archive 15-3, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "The Trump Effect: Is This Time Different?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_apr_17, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2015. "Fiscal Austerity, Dollar Appreciation, and Maldistribution Will Derail the US Economy," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_may_15, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Michalis Nikiforos, 2016. "Distribution-led Growth through Methodological Lenses," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_879, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Michalis Nikiforos, 2013. "Employment Recovery? after the Great Recession," Economics Policy Note Archive 13-03, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2013. "Rescuing the Recovery: Prospects and Policies for the United States," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_oct_13, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Fernando Rios-Avila, 2015. "Losing Ground: Demographic Trends in US Labor Force Participation," Economics Policy Note Archive 15-7, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Michalis Nikiforos, 2013. "A New 'Lehman Moment,' or Something Worse? A Scenario of Hitting the Debt Ceiling," Economics Policy Note Archive 13-09, Levy Economics Institute.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_mar_13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elizabeth Dunn). General contact details of provider: http://www.levyinstitute.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.