IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kgu/wpaper/215.html

Effects of Changes in Exchange Rate Volatility on Short-run Equilibrium in International Oligopoly

Author

Listed:
  • Tetsuya Shinkai

    (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University)

  • Takao Ohkawa

    (Faculty of Economics,Ritsumeikan University)

  • Makoto Okamura

    (Faculty of Economics,Gakushuin University)

  • Ryoma Kitamura

    (Faculty of Economics,Otemon Gakuin University)

Abstract

This paper investigates exchange rate volatility in an international oligopolistic market in a foreign country that accepts affiliate firms through foreign direct investment. The affiliate firms must procure intermediate products from their overseas parent firms. We derive a Cournot equilibrium of a market in which affiliate firms compete with local firms under foreign exchange rate uncertainty. In equilibrium, we show that affiliates aggressively expand output and the ex-post expected profits and ex-ante certainty equivalence of the affiliates’ profits increase / decrease with a rise in exchange rate risk when the relative risk aversion coefficient is small / large.

Suggested Citation

  • Tetsuya Shinkai & Takao Ohkawa & Makoto Okamura & Ryoma Kitamura, 2020. "Effects of Changes in Exchange Rate Volatility on Short-run Equilibrium in International Oligopoly," Discussion Paper Series 215, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kgu:wpaper:215
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://192.218.163.163/RePEc/pdf/kgdp215.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert F. Owen & Stylianos Perrakis, 1988. "An International Duopoly Model Under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 39(5), pages 1035-1060.
    2. Sung, Hongmo & Lapan, Harvey E, 2000. "Strategic Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange-Rate Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(2), pages 411-423, May.
    3. Lahiri, Sajal & Mesa, Fernando, 2006. "Local content requirement on foreign direct investment under exchange rate volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 346-363.
    4. Hasegawa, Makoto & Kiyota, Kozo, 2017. "The effect of moving to a territorial tax system on profit repatriation: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 92-110.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tetsuya Shinkai & Takao Ohkawa & Makoto Okamura, 2018. "Effects of Change in Local Content Requirement and Exchange Rate Volatility in an International Oligopoly," Discussion Paper Series 180, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised May 2018.
    2. Adugna Lemi & Sisay Asefa, 2009. "Differential Impacts of Economic Volatility and Governance on Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of US Multinationals in Africa," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 367-395.
    3. Sebastien Bradley & Estelle Dauchy & Makoto Hasegawa, 2018. "Investor valuations of Japan’s adoption of a territorial tax regime: quantifying the direct and competitive effects of international tax reform," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 581-630, June.
    4. Holzmann, Carolin & Büttner, Thiess, 2018. "Switching to Territorial Taxation: FDI Effects for Host-Countries of Foreign Subsidiaries," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181555, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Fizza Malik, 2016. "Modeling Dynamics of Exchange Rates Volatility: A Case of Pakistan from 1980-2010," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(3), pages 144-161, September.
    6. Huang, Alex YiHou & Peng, Sheng-Pen & Li, Fangjhy & Ke, Ching-Jie, 2011. "Volatility forecasting of exchange rate by quantile regression," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 591-606, October.
    7. Tahir, Muhammad & Ibrahim, Haslindar & Zulkafli, Abdul Hadi & Mushtaq, Muhammad, 2020. "Corruption, national culture, law and dividend repatriation policy," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
    8. Benjamin N. Dennis & Christopher A. Laincz & Lei Zhu, 2008. "Which Exchange Rates Matter for FDI? Evidence for Japan," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(1), pages 50-68, July.
    9. Henry Aray, 2007. "International Monopoly under Uncertainty," ThE Papers 07/05, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    10. Bruno Pires Tiberto & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2023. "Effects of Sustainable Monetary and Fiscal Policy on FDI Inflows to EMDE Countries," Working Papers Series 575, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Balaban, Suzana & Živkov, Dejan & Milenković, Ivan, 2019. "Impact of an unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI: Evidence from transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    12. Dhammika Dharmapala, 2016. "The Economics of Corporate and Business Tax Reform," CESifo Working Paper Series 5864, CESifo.
    13. Yang, JinHyuk & Kang, Youngho, 2023. "Effects of home country tax reform on FDI inflows to South Korea: A synthetic control method approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    14. Katheryn Russ, 2012. "Exchange rate volatility and first-time entry by multinational firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(2), pages 269-295, June.
    15. Eiji Ogawa & Naoki Shinada & Masakazu Sato, 2020. "Japanese Companies’ Overseas Business Expansion and Impacts of Changes in Exchange Rate," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 16(2), pages 223-248, February.
    16. Dong, Qi Flora & Cao, Yiting & Zhao, Xin & Deshmukh, Ashutosh, 2019. "Responses of US multinational firms to a temporary repatriation tax holiday: A literature review and synthesis," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 108-123.
    17. Demir, Firat, 2013. "Growth under exchange rate volatility: Does access to foreign or domestic equity markets matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 74-88.
    18. Li, Ruifen & Zhang, Ruihua, 2024. "How does exchange rate fluctuation affect the efficiency of Chinese enterprises' overseas mergers and acquisitions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    19. Arbeláez, Harvey & Ruiz, Isabel, 2013. "Macroeconomic antecedents to U.S. investment in Latin America," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 439-447.
    20. Issabayev, Murat & Rizvanoghlu, Islam, 2019. "Optimal choice between local content requirement and fiscal policy in extractive industries: A theoretical analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-8.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kgu:wpaper:215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Toshihiro Okada (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dekgujp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.