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Causality Relationships between Total Exports with Agricultural and Manufacturing GDP in Tanzania

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  • Shombe, Nicolaus Herman

Abstract

This paper, investigates causal relationships among agriculture, manufacturing and export in Tanzania by using time series data for the period between 1970 and 2005. The empirical results show in both sectors there is Granger causality where agriculture causes both exports and manufacturing. Exports also cause both agricultural GDP and manufacturing GDP and any two variables out of three jointly cause the third one. There is also some evidence that manufacturing does not cause export and agriculture. Regarding cointegration, pairwise agricultural GDP and export are cointegrated, export and manufacture are cointegrated. Agriculture and manufacture are cointegrated but they are lag sensitive. However, three variables, manufacturing, export and agriculture both together are cointegrated showing that they share long run relation and this has important economic implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Shombe, Nicolaus Herman, 2008. "Causality Relationships between Total Exports with Agricultural and Manufacturing GDP in Tanzania," IDE Discussion Papers 136, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper136
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    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/record/38031/files/IDP000136_001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    2. Keijiro Otsuka, 2006. "Cluster‐Based Industrial Development: A View From East Asia," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(3), pages 361-376, September.
    3. Estudillo, Jonna P & Otsuka, Keijiro, 1999. "Green Revolution, Human Capital, and Off-Farm Employment: Changing," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(3), pages 497-523, April.
    4. Tetsushi Sonobe & Keijiro Otsuka, 2014. "Cluster-Based Industrial Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-38511-6, April.
    5. Jean–paul Azam & Njuguna Ndung’u & Augustin Fosu, 2002. "Explaining Slow Growth in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 177-220.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rajwant Kaur & Amarjit Singh Sidhu, 2014. "Causal Relationship between Exports and Agricultural GDP in India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(1), pages 105-120, March.
    2. Salah Eddine SARI HASSOUN & Abdelkader SAHED & Khayereddine Salim ADDA & Asma Hadjira SEBBANE, 2020. "Not a long ago, the agriculture sector was the main pillar of any economy in the world. It not only provides food production, but it participates to the expansion of the economic growth as well. In this paper, we shall try to investigate the relation," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 301-324, Summer.
    3. Bakari, Sayef, 2016. "L’impact des Exportations Agricoles sur la Croissance Économique en Tunisie Durant la Période 1988 – 2014 [The Impact of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia During the Period 1988 - 2014]," MPRA Paper 80655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nahanga Verter & Věra Bečvářová, 2016. "The Impact of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 691-700.
    5. Khalid Mahmood & Shehla Munir, 2018. "Agricultural exports and economic growth in Pakistan: an econometric reassessment," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1561-1574, July.
    6. Kollie, Genesis B., . "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in ECOWAS: A Panel Data Analysis," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2).
    7. Myovella, Godwin A. & Paul, Fintan & Rwakalaza, Rameck T., . "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Agricultural Exports in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 3(2).

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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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