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Towards 5G: scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure

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  • Edward Oughton

    (Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Moving from 4G LTE to 5G is an archetypal example of technological change. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) who fail to adapt will likely lose market share. Hitherto, qualitative frameworks have been put forward to aid with business model adaptation for MNOs facing on the one hand increasing traffic growth, while on the other declining revenues. In this analysis, we provide a complementary scenario-based assessment of 5G infrastructure strategies in relation to mobile traffic growth. This information is required by commercial players in the digital ecosystem for strategy development, and can support management decision-making. Developing and applying an open-source modelling framework, we quantify the uncertainty associated with future demand and supply for a hypothetical MNO, using Britain as a case study example. We find that spectrum strategies require the least amount of capital expenditure and are capable of meeting baseline demand until approximately 2025, after which more spectrum capacity will be required. Alternatively, small cell deployments provide significant capacity but at considerable cost, and hence are likely only in the densest locations, unless MNOs can boost revenues by capturing value from the Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Cities or other technological developments dependent on digital connectivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Oughton, 2018. "Towards 5G: scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure," Working Papers 2017/04 (revised), Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:jbs:wpaper:201704r
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Edward J. Oughton & Will Usher & Peter Tyler & Jim W. Hall, 2018. "Infrastructure as a Complex Adaptive System," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-11, November.
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    6. Edward J. Oughton & Ashutosh Jha, 2021. "Supportive 5G Infrastructure Policies are Essential for Universal 6G: Assessment using an Open-source Techno-economic Simulation Model utilizing Remote Sensing," Papers 2102.08086, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    7. Oughton, Edward J. & Comini, Niccolò & Foster, Vivien & Hall, Jim W., 2022. "Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    8. Edward J. Oughton & William Lehr, 2022. "Surveying 5G Techno-Economic Research to Inform the Evaluation of 6G Wireless Technologies," Papers 2201.02272, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
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