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Towards 5G: scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure

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  • Edward Oughton

    (Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Moving from 4G LTE to 5G is an archetypal example of technological change. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) who fail to adapt will likely lose market share. Hitherto, qualitative frameworks have been put forward to aid with business model adaptation for MNOs facing on the one hand increasing traffic growth, while on the other declining revenues. In this analysis, we provide a complementary scenario-based assessment of 5G infrastructure strategies in relation to mobile traffic growth. This information is required by commercial players in the digital ecosystem for strategy development, and can support management decision-making. Developing and applying an open-source modelling framework, we quantify the uncertainty associated with future demand and supply for a hypothetical MNO, using Britain as a case study example. We find that spectrum strategies require the least amount of capital expenditure and are capable of meeting baseline demand until approximately 2025, after which more spectrum capacity will be required. Alternatively, small cell deployments provide significant capacity but at considerable cost, and hence are likely only in the densest locations, unless MNOs can boost revenues by capturing value from the Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Cities or other technological developments dependent on digital connectivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Oughton, 2018. "Towards 5G: scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure," Working Papers 2017/04 (revised), Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:jbs:wpaper:201704r
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    1. Hoeschele, Thomas & Dietzel, Christoph & Kopp, Daniel & Fitzek, Frank H.P. & Reisslein, Martin, 2021. "Importance of Internet Exchange Point (IXP) infrastructure for 5G: Estimating the impact of 5G use cases," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    2. Satyanand Singh & Joanna Rosak-Szyrocka & István Drotár & Xavier Fernando, 2023. "Oceania’s 5G Multi-Tier Fixed Wireless Access Link’s Long-Term Resilience and Feasibility Analysis," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-29, October.
    3. Ioannou, Nikos & Kokkinis, Dimitris & Katsianis, Dimitris & Varoutas, Dimitris, 2023. "Comparative Techno-Economic Evaluation of 5G Infrastructure Sharing Business Models in European Rural Areas," 32nd European Regional ITS Conference, Madrid 2023: Realising the digital decade in the European Union – Easier said than done? 277973, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    4. Deevela, Niranjan Rao & Singh, Bhim & Kandpal, Tara C., 2023. "Optimization and economic analysis of solar PV based hybrid system for powering Base Transceiver Stations in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    5. Edward J. Oughton & Ashutosh Jha, 2021. "Supportive 5G Infrastructure Policies are Essential for Universal 6G: Assessment using an Open-source Techno-economic Simulation Model utilizing Remote Sensing," Papers 2102.08086, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    6. Hutajulu, Sahat & Dhewanto, Wawan & Prasetio, Eko Agus, 2020. "Two scenarios for 5G deployment in Indonesia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    7. Kajikawa, Yuya & Mejia, Cristian & Wu, Mengjia & Zhang, Yi, 2022. "Academic landscape of Technological Forecasting and Social Change through citation network and topic analyses," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    8. Magnaghi, Mattia & Ghezzi, Antonio & Rangone, Andrea, 2025. "5G is not just another G: A review of the 5G business model and ecosystem challenges," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    9. Blind, Knut & Niebel, Crispin, 2022. "5G roll-out failures addressed by innovation policies in the EU," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    10. Cheng, Xiaoyuan & Hu, Yukun & Varga, Liz, 2022. "5G network deployment and the associated energy consumption in the UK: A complex systems’ exploration," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    11. Haldar, Anasuya & Sethi, Narayan, 2022. "Environmental effects of Information and Communication Technology - Exploring the roles of renewable energy, innovation, trade and financial development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    12. Kulmer, Veronika & Seebauer, Sebastian & Hinterreither, Helene & Kortschak, Dominik & Theurl, Michaela C. & Haas, Willi, 2022. "Transforming the s-shape: Identifying and explaining turning points in market diffusion curves of low-carbon technologies in Austria," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1).
    13. Ly, Pham Thi Minh & Lai, Wen-Hsiang & Hsu, Chiung-Wen & Shih, Fang-Yin, 2018. "Fuzzy AHP analysis of Internet of Things (IoT) in enterprises," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Edward J. Oughton & Will Usher & Peter Tyler & Jim W. Hall, 2018. "Infrastructure as a Complex Adaptive System," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-11, November.
    15. Lee, Chuan-Kai & Yu, Limeng, 2022. "A multi-level perspective on 5G transition: The China case," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    16. Leonardo Guevara & Fernando Auat Cheein, 2020. "The Role of 5G Technologies: Challenges in Smart Cities and Intelligent Transportation Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-15, August.
    17. Oughton, Edward J. & Comini, Niccolò & Foster, Vivien & Hall, Jim W., 2022. "Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    18. Mimica R. Milošević & Miloš M. Nikolić & Dušan M. Milošević & Violeta Dimić, 2025. "Enhancing Efficiency in Sustainable IoT Enterprises: Modeling Indicators Using Pythagorean Fuzzy and Interval Grey Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-30, August.
    19. Perpetua S. Wanaswa & Zachary B. Awino & Martin Ogutu & Joseph Owino, 2023. "Technological Innovation and Competitive Advantage: Empirical Evidence from Large Telecommunication Firms," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(10), pages 1-21, February.
    20. erpetua S. Wanaswa & Zachary B. Awino & Martin Ogutu & Joseph Owino, 2023. "Technological Innovation and Strategic Leadership Axis on Competitive Advantage of Telecommunication Enterprises," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(9), pages 1-48, February.
    21. Edward J. Oughton & William Lehr, 2022. "Surveying 5G Techno-Economic Research to Inform the Evaluation of 6G Wireless Technologies," Papers 2201.02272, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    22. Parcu, Pier Luigi & Innocenti, Niccolò & Carrozza, Chiara, 2022. "Ubiquitous technologies and 5G development. Who is leading the race?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    23. Ashutosh Jha & Debashis Saha, 2022. "Mobile Broadband for Inclusive Connectivity: What Deters the High-Capacity Deployment of 4G-LTE Innovation in India?," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1305-1329, August.
    24. Saul Beltozar-Clemente & Orlando Iparraguirre-Villanueva & Félix Pucuhuayla-Revatta & Fernando Sierra-Liñan & Joselyn Zapata-Paulini & Michael Cabanillas-Carbonell, 2023. "Contributions of the 5G Network with Respect to Decent Work and Economic Growth (Sustainable Development Goal 8): A Systematic Review of the Literature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-37, November.

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