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Fiscal Effects of Minimum Wages: An Analysis for Germany

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  • Bauer, Thomas K.

    () (RWI)

  • Kluve, Jochen

    () (Humboldt University Berlin, RWI)

  • Schaffner, Sandra

    () (RWI)

  • Schmidt, Christoph M.

    () (RWI)

Abstract

Against the background of the current discussion on the introduction of statutory minimum wages in Germany, this paper analyzes the potential employment and fiscal effects of such a policy. Based on estimated labor demand elasticities obtained from a structural labor demand model, the empirical results imply that the introduction of minimum wages in Germany will be associated with significant employment losses that are concentrated among marginal and low- and semi-skilled full-time workers. Even though minimum wages will lead to increased public revenues from income taxes and social security benefits, they will result in a significant fiscal burden, due to increased expenditures for unemployment benefits and decreased revenues from corporate taxes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bauer, Thomas K. & Kluve, Jochen & Schaffner, Sandra & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2008. "Fiscal Effects of Minimum Wages: An Analysis for Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 3875, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3875
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    11. Lietmeyer, Volker & Petzold, Oliver, 2005. "Bedingungen und Ziele für eine Reform der Unternehmensbesteuerung," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW – German National Library of Economics / Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 85(9), pages 590-599.
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    Cited by:

    1. György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Torsten Schmidt & Klaus Weyerstraß, 2014. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2018: Inlands- und Auslandsnachfrage verlieren mittelfristig an Schwung," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 13, 03.
    2. Müller, Kai-Uwe, 2012. "Estimating the employment effects of a minimum wage from a cross-sectional wage distribution. A semi-parametric approach," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62019, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Philipp vom Berge & Hanna Frings & Alfredo R. Paloyo, 2013. "High-Impact Minimum Wages and Heterogeneous Regions," Ruhr Economic Papers 0408, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2012. "Accounting for labor demand effects in structural labor supply models," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 129-138.
    5. vom Berge, Philipp & Frings, Hanna & Paloyo, Alfredo R., 2013. "High-Impact Minimum Wages and Heterogeneous Regions," Ruhr Economic Papers 408, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Thomas K. Bauer & Jochen Kluve & Sandra Schaffner & Christoph M. Schmidt, 2009. "Fiscal Effects of Minimum Wages: An Analysis for Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 224-242, May.
    7. Frank Scharr, 2009. "Aufbau Ost 20 Jahre nach dem Mauerfall: Ziele und Aufgaben für die nächsten Jahre," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(18), pages 43-48, September.
    8. Arndt R. Reichert, 2015. "Obesity, Weight Loss, and Employment Prospects: Evidence from a Randomized Trial," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 759-810.
    9. Möller, Joachim & Bender, Stefan & König, Marion & vom Berge, Philipp & Umkehrer, Matthias & Wolter, Stefanie & Schaffner, Sandra & Bachmann, Ronald & Kröger, Hanna & Janßen-Timmen, Ronald & Paloyo, A, 2011. "Evaluation bestehender gesetzlicher Mindestlohnregelungen: Branche: Bauhauptgewerbe. Forschungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Arbeit und Soziales (BMAS). Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 72591.
    10. Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Schmidt, Torsten & Weyerstraß, Klaus, 2014. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2018: Inlands- und Auslandsnachfrage verlieren mittelfristig an Schwung," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 65(1), pages 93-105.
    11. Schmidt Christoph M., 2014. "Wirkungstreffer erzielen – Die Rolle der evidenzbasierten Politikberatung in einer aufgeklärten Gesellschaft," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 219-233, October.
    12. repec:zbw:rwirep:0381 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2014. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Aufschwung bleibt moderat," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 65(1), pages 37-94.
    14. Schmitz, Sebastian, 2017. "The effects of Germany's new minimum wage on employment and welfare dependency," Discussion Papers 2017/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    15. Kai-Uwe Müller, 2010. "Employment Effects of a Sectoral Minimum Wage in Germany: Semi-Parametric Estimations from Cross-Sectional Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1061, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Martin Micheli & Svetlana Rujin & Lina Zwick, 2014. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Aufschwung bleibt moderat," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 58, 03.
    17. Boll, Christina & Hüning, Hendrik & Leppin, Julian & Puckelwald, Johannes, 2015. "Potential effects of a statutory minimum wage on the gender pay gap: A simulation-based study for Germany," HWWI Research Papers 163, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    18. Mueller, Kai-Uwe & Steiner, Viktor, 2013. "Behavioral effects of a federal minimum wage and income inequality in Germany," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79784, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Müller, Kai-Uwe & Steiner, Viktor, 2011. "Beschäftigungswirkungen von Lohnsubventionen und Mindestlöhnen - Zur Reform des Niedriglohnsektors in Deutschland," Discussion Papers 2011/4, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    20. Arnd Kölling, 2014. "Labor Demand and Unequal Payment: Does Wage Inequality matter? Analyzing the Influence of Intra-firm Wage Dispersion on Labor Demand with German Employer-Employee Data," Working Paper Series in Economics 326, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    21. Arndt Reichert, 2012. "Obesity, Weight Loss, and Employment Prospects – Evidence from a Randomized Trial," Ruhr Economic Papers 0381, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    22. repec:zbw:rwirep:0408 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal effects; minimum wages; employment; public budget;

    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J88 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Public Policy

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