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Direct Democracy and Candidate Choice: Evidence from Abortion Ballot Measures

Author

Listed:
  • Gardner, Graham

    (Texas Christian University)

  • McCrary, Kayleigh

    (University of Richmond)

  • Spencer, Melissa

    (University of Richmond)

Abstract

Do ballot measures generate spillover effects on voters’ choice of candidates? We examine this question by studying 16 abortion ballot measures in the 2022 and 2024 US general elections. Nationwide electoral returns show that the 2022 measures aided Democrats, but the 2024 measures aided Republicans. These effects are not explained by turnout. Instead, ballot measures incentivize voters to select candidates along margins other than the ballot measure issue. Survey data from 2024 show that moderate voters who preferred abortion rights and had the chance to vote on abortion ballot measures became more likely to vote Republican.

Suggested Citation

  • Gardner, Graham & McCrary, Kayleigh & Spencer, Melissa, 2026. "Direct Democracy and Candidate Choice: Evidence from Abortion Ballot Measures," IZA Discussion Papers 18928, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18928
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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