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Direct Democracy and Candidate Choice: Evidence from Abortion Ballot Measures

Author

Listed:
  • Gardner, Graham

    (Texas Christian University)

  • McCrary, Kayleigh

    (University of Richmond)

  • Spencer, Melissa

    (University of Richmond)

Abstract

Do ballot measures generate spillover effects on voters’ choice of candidates? We examine this question by studying 16 abortion ballot measures in the 2022 and 2024 US general elections. Nationwide electoral returns show that the 2022 measures aided Democrats, but the 2024 measures aided Republicans. These effects are not explained by turnout. Instead, ballot measures incentivize voters to select candidates along margins other than the ballot measure issue. Survey data from 2024 show that moderate voters who preferred abortion rights and had the chance to vote on abortion ballot measures became more likely to vote Republican.

Suggested Citation

  • Gardner, Graham & McCrary, Kayleigh & Spencer, Melissa, 2026. "Direct Democracy and Candidate Choice: Evidence from Abortion Ballot Measures," IZA Discussion Papers 18928, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18928
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Myers, Caitlin Knowles, 2021. "Cooling off or Burdened? The Effects of Mandatory Waiting Periods on Abortions and Births," IZA Discussion Papers 14434, IZA Network @ LISER.
    2. Hamid Noghanibehambari & David Slusky & Hoa Vu, 2025. "From Access to Wellness: Early Life Exposure to Abortion Legalization and the Next Generation’s Health," NBER Working Papers 33571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Caitlin Knowles Myers, 2017. "The Power of Abortion Policy: Reexamining the Effects of Young Women’s Access to Reproductive Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 2178-2224.
    4. Myers, Caitlin & Ladd, Daniel, 2020. "Did parental involvement laws grow teeth? The effects of state restrictions on minors’ access to abortion," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Besley, Timothy & Coate, Stephen, 2008. "Issue Unbundling via Citizens' Initiatives," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 379-397, December.
    6. Piette Durrance, Christine & Wang, Yang & Wolfe, Barbara, 2025. "Abortion access and child protective services involvement," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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