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The Industrial Revolution Reconsidered: Hard Steps, The Great Filter, and Doomsday

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  • Naudé, Wim

    (RWTH Aachen University)

Abstract

The Hard Steps model is applied to argue that the Industrial Revolution (IR) heralded a terminal phase of human existence. Assuming six hard steps, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method is used to pinpoint the start of the IR to ≈ year 1700. Once these hard steps] were cleared, the global economy entered a growth spiral which, as in the multistage carcinogenesis model of cancer, will terminate once a lethal burden is reached. The Doomsday Argument suggests this happening within 900 years. Thermodynamic limits, however, indicate a limit in less than 400 years, and of about 26 years after invention an Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI). The IR may be the Great Filter, explaining the Fermi Paradox. Alternatively, current human observers may be living in an ancestor simulation designed to study late-stage capitalism.

Suggested Citation

  • Naudé, Wim, 2026. "The Industrial Revolution Reconsidered: Hard Steps, The Great Filter, and Doomsday," IZA Discussion Papers 18447, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18447
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • P10 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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