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Gravity Predictions of International Migration Flows

Author

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  • Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

  • López Molina, Gonzalo

    (Analistas Financieros Internacionales)

Abstract

What is the future of international migration flows? The growing availability of bilateral international migration data has resulted in an improved understanding of the determinants of migration flows through the estimation of theory-based gravity models. However, the use of these models as a prediction tool has remained a mostly unexplored research area. This paper estimates simple gravity models of bilateral migration flows for the whole world and projects these models into the future. Our results confirm a limited role for economic factors and a large one for demographic ones, in line with the literature. As a novel contribution, we show that estimates based on net flows are substantially lower than those based on gross flows. The reason is that network effects are historically more correlated with gross than with net flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús & López Molina, Gonzalo, 2024. "Gravity Predictions of International Migration Flows," IZA Discussion Papers 17572, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17572
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andreas Backhaus & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Chris Muris, 2015. "Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Thu Hien Dao & Frédéric Docquier & Mathilde Maurel & Pierre Schaus, 2021. "Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(2), pages 417-449, May.
    3. Robert M. Beyer & Jacob Schewe & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2022. "Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Lucas Kluge & Samir KC & Dilek Yildiz & Guy Abel & Jacob Schewe & Orlando Olaya-Bucaro, 2024. "A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(11), pages 323-376.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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