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A Vague Theory of Choice over Time

  • Manzini, Paola

    ()

    (University of St. Andrews)

  • Mariotti, Marco

    ()

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

We propose a novel approach to modelling time preferences, based on a cognitive shortcoming of human decision makers: the perception of future events becomes increasingly ‘blurred’ as the events are pushed further in time. We axiomatise a class of preference representations which can be specialised to rationalise ‘anomalies’ such as preference reversals and cyclical preferences. We also present an application to a form of time inconsistency which we dub ‘the now or never fallacy’.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1228.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in:B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics: Advances in Theoretical Economics , 2006, 6 (1), 1265-1265
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1228
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  1. Thaler, Richard H & Shefrin, H M, 1981. "An Economic Theory of Self-Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 392-406, April.
  2. E. S. Phelps & R. A. Pollak, 1968. "On Second-Best National Saving and Game-Equilibrium Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 185-199.
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  4. O'Donoghue, Ted & Rabin, Matthew, 2000. "Choice and Procrastination," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5r26k54p, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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  7. Read, Daniel, 2001. "Is Time-Discounting Hyperbolic or Subadditive?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 5-32, July.
  8. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
  9. O'Donoghue, Ted & Rabin, Matthew, 1997. "Doing It Now or Later," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7t44m5b0, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  10. Aizpurua, J M & Ichiishi, T. & Nieto, J. & Uriarte, J. R., 1993. "Similarity and Preferences in the Space of Simple Lotteries," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 289-97, June.
  11. Laibson, David I., 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," Scholarly Articles 4481499, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  12. Itzhak Gilboa & Robert Lapson, 1990. "Aggregation of Semiorders: Intransitive Indifference Makes a Difference," Discussion Papers 870, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  13. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1988. "Similarity and decision-making under risk (is there a utility theory resolution to the Allais paradox?)," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-153, October.
  14. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279.
  15. Tversky, Amos & Slovic, Paul & Kahneman, Daniel, 1990. "The Causes of Preference Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 204-17, March.
  16. Rubinstein, A., 2000. "Is it "Economics and Psychology"?: the Case of Hyperbolic Discounting," Papers 00-21, Tel Aviv.
  17. George Loewenstein & Drazen Prelec, 1992. "Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and an Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 573-597.
  18. Efe A Ok & Yusufcan Masatlioglu, 2003. "A General Theory of Time Preferences," Levine's Bibliography 234936000000000089, UCLA Department of Economics.
  19. Rubinstein, Ariel, 2001. "A theorist's view of experiments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 615-628, May.
  20. JosÊ RamÕn Uriarte, 1999. "Decision-making under risk: Editing procedures based on correlated similarities, and preference overdetermination," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12.
  21. Fishburn, Peter C & Rubinstein, Ariel, 1982. "Time Preference," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(3), pages 677-94, October.
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