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The Long Memory Story Of Real Interest Rates. Can It Be Supported?

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Paya

    () (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Agustín Duarte

    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Ioannis A. Venetis

    (Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE))

Abstract

This papers finds evidence of fractional integration for a number of monthly ex post real interest rate series using the GPH semiparametric estimator on data from fourteen European countries and the US. However, we pose empirical questions on certain time series requirements that emerge from fractional integration and we find that they do not hold pointing to ¿spurious¿ long memory and casting doubts with respect to the theoretical origins of long memory in our sample. Common stochastic trends expressed as the sum of stationary past errors do not seem appropriate as an explanation of real interest rate covariation. From an economic perspective, our results suggest that most European countries show higher speed of real interest rate equalization with Germany rather than the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Paya & Agustín Duarte & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2005. "The Long Memory Story Of Real Interest Rates. Can It Be Supported?," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-01, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2005-01
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-374, August.
    2. Duarte, Agustin & Holden, Ken, 2003. "The business cycle in the G-7 economies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 685-700.
    3. Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February.
    4. Christensen, Michael, 2000. "Uncovered Interest Parity and Policy Behavior New Evidence," Finance Working Papers 00-2, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    5. Tsay, Wen-Jen, 2000. "Long memory story of the real interest rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 325-330, June.
    6. Christensen, Michael, 2000. "Uncovered interest parity and policy behavior: new evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 81-87, October.
    7. Adrian W. Throop, 1994. "International financial market integration and linkages of national interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-18.
    8. Mark J. Holmes, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes and economic convergence in the European Union," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 6-20, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real interest rate; long memory; fractional integration;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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