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Fiscal Reaction Functions Across the World: A Battle of Statistical (In-) Significance

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso
  • João Jalles

Abstract

We estimate fiscal reaction functions for a panel of 173 countries using data between 1970-2014. Most notably, we assess the existence of non-Ricardian regimes, as postulated in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), or, contrarily, the possibility of Ricardian regimes. By means of several, well established and state-of-the-art, panel data techniques, we find that: governments have on average increased the primary balance as a response to higher previous government indebtedness, implying a Ricardian fiscal regime, contradicting the FTPL. In addition, the Ricardian results are confirmed for the advanced countries and for the euro area group, but are less clear for the other country groups, lacking statistical significance. A more Ricardian fiscal regime emerged essentially after 1995 and notably in the sub-period 2008-2014, after the Global Financial Crisis (before that statistical insignificance is the norm) From a P-VAR analysis, we find that increases in government indebtedness increase primary balances, supporting overall the existence of an average Ricardian fiscal regime.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & João Jalles, 2017. "Fiscal Reaction Functions Across the World: A Battle of Statistical (In-) Significance," Working Papers REM 2017/16, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp0162017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    2. António Afonso & Priscilla Toffano, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/10, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    4. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert E & Diba, Behzad T, 2001. "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(474), pages 667-690, October.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "A Historical Public Debt Database," IMF Working Papers 2010/245, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal regimes; FTPL; panel data; panel VAR; panel stationarity; cross-sectional dependence; global financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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