Structural changes and external vulnerabilities in the Brazilian economy: 1995-2009
From the 1990s, the reorientation of the development model, which switched from protective of industrial sector to intensifier of the trade liberalization process, brought the need for reorganization of large productive sectors of the Brazilian economy, were openly forced to face global competitors, within the established international conditions. Thus, during the 1990s, the Brazilian economy experienced a period of fast and deep changes, combining the process of intensification of trade liberalization with a view of industrial and technological policy which combines sectoral and systemic dimension, with privatization of important sectors of the economy (such as electricity and telecommunications sectors), and a stabilization program (Real Plan), based on a fixed exchange rate, with important effects on the whole economy. This article aims to assess the evolution of external vulnerability and structural changes in terms of generating value added in the Brazilian economy in the period 1995-2009, subdivided into three sub-periods, namely 1995-2000, 2000-2005 and 2005 -2009, by means of a novel treatment of the inter-sectoral output multipliers. The data base was the annual input- output matrices from Brazil for 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2009, structured into 42 sectors. The main results indicated a very satisfactory behavior of the national economy over time, with a predominance of positive gains in the ability to generate value added and lower imports of intermediate inputs by the most technologically advanced industries and by services, and fewer losses and greater external dependence for the minority of sectors, particularly in recent years.
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