The Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade in Central and Eastern European Countries
In this work we assess the existence of a S-Curve pattern in ten Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC-10) for the relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade. Empirical results support the existence of this curve for Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary, and also for an aggregate of the ten transition countries. In the case of Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia the pattern is weaker than in the mentioned countries but it stills prevails. We then document this property of business cycles in the dynamic general equilibrium trade model of Backus, Kehoe, and Kydland (1994) calibrated specifically to match the CEEC-10 aggregate economy. Results support the existence of a S-Curve, except when technology shocks are absent and domestic and imported goods are perfect substitutes.
|Date of creation:||15 Jun 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://bru-unide.iscte.pt/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992.
"Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The S-Curve,"
NBER Working Papers
4242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
- David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "DOS executable for "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?"," QM&RBC Codes 5, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Web interface for "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?"," QM&RBC Codes 5a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve," Working Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Douglas Gollin, 2002.
"Getting Income Shares Right,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
- Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member states - consequences for the enlargement of the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Martin Falk, 2008. "Determinants of the Trade Balance in Industrialized Countries," FIW Research Reports series I-013, FIW.
- Ellen E. Meade, 1988. "Exchange rates, adjustment, and the J-curve," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 633-644.
- Senhadji, Abdelhak S., 1998. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in LDCs: The S-curve," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 105-131, October.
- Gábor Kátay & Zoltán Wolf, 2008. "Driving Factors of Growth in Hungary - a Decomposition Exercise," MNB Working Papers 2008/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
- Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan & Artatrana Ratha, 2008. "The S-Curve in Emerging Markets," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(2), pages 341-351, June.
- Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union; Equilibrium, Excess, and EU-Phoria," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isc:iscwp1:ercwp0310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Henrique Monteiro)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.