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The Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade in Central and Eastern European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes

    () (ISCTE-IUL - Department of Economics, UNIDE-ERC and DINÂMIA)

  • Tiago Neves Sequeira

    () (UBI and INOVA-UNL)

Abstract

In this work we assess the existence of a S-Curve pattern in ten Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC-10) for the relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade. Empirical results support the existence of this curve for Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary, and also for an aggregate of the ten transition countries. In the case of Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia the pattern is weaker than in the mentioned countries but it stills prevails. We then document this property of business cycles in the dynamic general equilibrium trade model of Backus, Kehoe, and Kydland (1994) calibrated specifically to match the CEEC-10 aggregate economy. Results support the existence of a S-Curve, except when technology shocks are absent and domestic and imported goods are perfect substitutes.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2010. "The Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade in Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp0310, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
  • Handle: RePEc:isc:iscwp1:ercwp0310
    as

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    File URL: http://bru-unide.iscte.pt/RePEc/pdfs/ERCwp0310.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan & Artatrana Ratha, 2008. "The S-Curve in Emerging Markets," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 50(2), pages 341-351, June.
    3. David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    5. Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union; Equilibrium, Excess, and EU-Phoria," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member states - consequences for the enlargement of the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Martin Falk, 2008. "Determinants of the Trade Balance in Industrialized Countries," FIW Research Reports series I-013, FIW.
    8. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
    9. Gábor Kátay & Zoltán Wolf, 2008. "Driving Factors of Growth in Hungary - a Decomposition Exercise," MNB Working Papers 2008/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Ellen E. Meade, 1988. "Exchange rates, adjustment, and the J-curve," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 633-644.
    11. Senhadji, Abdelhak S., 1998. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in LDCs: The S-curve," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 105-131, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central and Eastern European Countries; Current Account Dynamics; Terms of Trade; S-Curve.;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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