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Determinants of the Trade Balance in Industrialized Countries

Author

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  • Martin Falk

    (WIFO)

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of the trade balance using panel data for 32 industrialized and emerging economies for the period 1990?2007. The results based on fixed effects models and linear mixed models allowing for random slope coefficients, show that the trade balance as a percentage of GDP is significantly positively related to real foreign GDP per capita of the trading partners. Real domestic GDP per capita has a negative effect on the trade balance. A real depreciation of the real exchange rate index leads to an improvement of the trade balance. However, in countries with a negative trade balance and/or a large positive net foreign direct investment position the trade balance is much less sensitive to movements in the real effective exchange rate index.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Falk, 2008. "Determinants of the Trade Balance in Industrialized Countries," FIW Research Reports series I-013, FIW.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsr:ecbook:2008:i:i-013
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
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    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1991. "Is there a long-run relation between the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate of LDCs?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 403-407, August.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
    5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2009. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2523-2532.
    7. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics,in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
    8. Hassan Shirvani & Barry Wilbratte, 1997. "The Relationship Between The Real Exchange Rate and The Trade Balance: An Empirical Reassessment," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 39-50.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandra Ferreira Lopes & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2014. "The dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in Central and Eastern European countries," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 64(1), pages 51-71, March.
    2. Dr. Mohammad Alawin & Eman Al-Maghareez, 2013. "Factors Affecting Trade Balance, The Case Of Jordan," Far East Journal of Psychology and Business, Far East Research Centre, vol. 11(3), pages 33-49, May.
    3. Mohamed Abbas Ibrahim, 2016. "Trade deficit in Egypt: Is it can be controlled?," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-7.
    4. repec:rfe:zbefri:v:35:y:2017:i:2:p:277-299 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Mejía Méndez, Cinthya & Jáquez Polanco, Jaqueli & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2017. "Determinantes del déficit comercial de la República Dominicana
      [Determinants of the trade deficit of the Dominican Republic]
      ," MPRA Paper 81218, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Direct Investment; trade balance; real effective exchange rate index; fiscal balance; panel data methods;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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