IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/wfo/wstudy/34230.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Determinants of the Trade Balance in Industrialized Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Falk

    (WIFO)

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of the trade balance using panel data for 32 industrialised and emerging economies for the period 1990–2007. The results, based on fixed effects models and linear mixed models allowing for random slope coefficients, show that the trade balance as a percentage of GDP is significantly positively related to real foreign GDP per capita of the trading partners. Real domestic GDP per capita has a negative effect on the trade balance. A real depreciation of the real effective exchange rate leads to an improvement of the trade balance. However, in countries with a negative trade balance and/or a large positive net foreign direct investment position the trade balance is much less sensitive to movements in the real effective exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Falk, 2008. "Determinants of the Trade Balance in Industrialized Countries," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 34230, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:34230
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/34230
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Himarios, Daniel, 1989. "Do Devaluations Improve the Trade Balance? The Evidence Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 143-168, January.
    3. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-323, March.
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1991. "Is there a long-run relation between the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate of LDCs?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 403-407, August.
    5. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
    8. Miles, Marc A, 1979. "The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 600-620, June.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2009. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2523-2532.
    10. Himarios, Daniel, 1985. "The effects of devaluation on the trade balance: A critical view and re- examination of Mile's `new results'," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 553-563, December.
    11. Hassan Shirvani & Barry Wilbratte, 1997. "The Relationship Between The Real Exchange Rate and The Trade Balance: An Empirical Reassessment," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 39-50.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed Abbas Ibrahim, 2016. "Trade deficit in Egypt: Is it can be controlled?," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-7.
    2. Muhammad Ahad & Zaheer Anwer, 2021. "Asymmetric impact of oil price on trade balance in BRICS countries: Multiplier dynamic analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2177-2197, April.
    3. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Mary Leung, 2021. "US trade deficit, a reality check: New evidence incorporating asymmetric and non‐linear effects of exchange rate dynamics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 818-836, March.
    4. Linda Akoto & Daniel Sakyi, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Trade Balance in Post-liberalization Ghana," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(3), pages 177-205, August.
    5. Gent Jusufi & Lura Rexhepi Mahmutaj & Gentina Jusufi & Nora Jusufi, 2015. "Kosovo’s International Trade: Balance of Trade," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, September.
    6. Alexandra Ferreira Lopes & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2014. "The dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in Central and Eastern European countries," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 64(1), pages 51-71, March.
    7. Mariusz Hamulczuk & Karolina Pawlak, 2022. "Determinants for international competitiveness of the food industry in 43 countries worldwide: evidence from panel models," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(3), pages 635-667, September.
    8. Liurong Pan & Asad Amin & Nian Zhu & Abbas Ali Chandio & Eric Yaw Naminse & Aadil Hameed Shah, 2022. "Exploring the Asymmetrical Influence of Economic Growth, Oil Price, Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production on the Trade Deficit in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    9. Dr. Mohammad Alawin & Eman Al-Maghareez, 2013. "Factors Affecting Trade Balance, The Case Of Jordan," Far East Journal of Psychology and Business, Far East Research Centre, vol. 11(3), pages 33-49, May.
    10. Selena Begoviæ & Sead Kreso, 2017. "The adverse effect of real effective exchange ratechange on trade balance in European transition countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 35(1), pages 277-299.
    11. Mejía Méndez, Cinthya & Jáquez Polanco, Jaqueli & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2017. "Determinantes del déficit comercial de la República Dominicana [Determinants of the trade deficit of the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 81218, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huseyin Kalyoncu & Ilhan Ozturk & Seyfettin Artan & Kahraman Kalyoncu, 2009. "Devaluation and trade balance in Latin American countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 27(1), pages 115-128.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tatchawan Kanitpong, 2017. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balances of Asian countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(46), pages 4668-4678, October.
    3. Yaya Keho, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Dynamics in Cote d Ivoire," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 61-70.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
    5. Bilgin, Cevat, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Exports: A Sectoral Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis for Turkey," MPRA Paper 101316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Salah A. Nusair, 2017. "The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-27, January.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2009. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2523-2532.
    8. Hsing Yu, 2008. "A Study of the J-Curve for Seven Selected Latin American Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2007. "Is there a J-Curve at the Industry Level?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(26), pages 1-12.
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Jalil, Abdul & Islam, Faridul, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Revisit," MPRA Paper 27631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Fišera, Boris & Horváth, Roman, 2022. "Are exchange rates less important for trade in a more globalized world? Evidence for the new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    12. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Test of the J-curve for the DR-CAFTA countries and policy implications," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 293-301, September.
    13. Kimbugwe, Hassan, 2006. "The bilateral J-Curve hypothesis between Turkey and her 9 trading partners," MPRA Paper 4254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2020. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(25), pages 2679-2693, May.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2017. "Asymmetric response of the US–India trade balance to exchange rate changes: Evidence from 68 industries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2226-2254, October.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2017. "Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach And Bilateral J-Curve: India Versus Her Trading Partners," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 472-483, July.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from UK-German commodity trade," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1029-1081, November.
    18. Mohammad Naim Azimi & Mohammad Musa Shafiq, 2022. "The J-curve phenomenon in Afghanistan and its major trading partners: evidence from a non-linear ARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-28, July.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Niloy Bose & Yun Zhang, 2018. "Asymmetric Cointegration, Nonlinear ARDL, and the J-Curve: A Bilateral Analysis of China and Its 21 Trading Partners," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(13), pages 3131-3151, October.
    20. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2017. "The Japanese trade balance and asymmetric effects of yen fluctuations: Evidence using nonlinear methods," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 56-63.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FIW Trade Balance;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:34230. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.