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Determinants of the Trade Balance in Industrialized Countries

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  • Martin Falk

    (WIFO)

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of the trade balance using panel data for 32 industrialised and emerging economies for the period 1990–2007. The results, based on fixed effects models and linear mixed models allowing for random slope coefficients, show that the trade balance as a percentage of GDP is significantly positively related to real foreign GDP per capita of the trading partners. Real domestic GDP per capita has a negative effect on the trade balance. A real depreciation of the real effective exchange rate leads to an improvement of the trade balance. However, in countries with a negative trade balance and/or a large positive net foreign direct investment position the trade balance is much less sensitive to movements in the real effective exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Falk, 2008. "Determinants of the Trade Balance in Industrialized Countries," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 34230, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:34230
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
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    11. Hassan Shirvani & Barry Wilbratte, 1997. "The Relationship Between The Real Exchange Rate and The Trade Balance: An Empirical Reassessment," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 39-50.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Liurong Pan & Asad Amin & Nian Zhu & Abbas Ali Chandio & Eric Yaw Naminse & Aadil Hameed Shah, 2022. "Exploring the Asymmetrical Influence of Economic Growth, Oil Price, Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production on the Trade Deficit in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    4. Alexandra Ferreira Lopes & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2014. "The dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in Central and Eastern European countries," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 64(1), pages 51-71, March.
    5. Dr. Mohammad Alawin & Eman Al-Maghareez, 2013. "Factors Affecting Trade Balance, The Case Of Jordan," Far East Journal of Psychology and Business, Far East Research Centre, vol. 11(3), pages 33-49, May.
    6. Mohamed Abbas Ibrahim, 2016. "Trade deficit in Egypt: Is it can be controlled?," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-7.
    7. Selena Begoviæ & Sead Kreso, 2017. "The adverse effect of real effective exchange ratechange on trade balance in European transition countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 35(1), pages 277-299.
    8. Mejía Méndez, Cinthya & Jáquez Polanco, Jaqueli & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2017. "Determinantes del déficit comercial de la República Dominicana [Determinants of the trade deficit of the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 81218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Muhammad Ahad & Zaheer Anwer, 2021. "Asymmetric impact of oil price on trade balance in BRICS countries: Multiplier dynamic analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2177-2197, April.
    10. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Mary Leung, 2021. "US trade deficit, a reality check: New evidence incorporating asymmetric and non‐linear effects of exchange rate dynamics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 818-836, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FIW Trade Balance;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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