IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ioe/cuadec/v52y2015i1p79-94.html

A note on the S-curve dynamics of commodity trade between Brazil and the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Dan Xi

Abstract

The S-curve hypothesis postulates that the correlation coefficient between the current exchange rate and past trade balance values may be negative. However, the correlation between the current exchange rate and future values of the trade balance may be positive. Previous research using aggregate trade flows between Brazil and rest of the world find weak support for the curve. When we disaggregate Brazil’s trade flows with the U.S. and investigate 95 industries that trade between the two countries, we find support for the S-curve in 51 industries. Small and large industries and durable and non-durable commodities are found to benefit from currency devaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Dan Xi, 2015. "A note on the S-curve dynamics of commodity trade between Brazil and the United States," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 52(1), pages 79-94, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:52:y:2015:i:1:p:79-94
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economia.uc.cl/docs/107764_laje_52179.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artarana, 2007. "Bilateral S-curve between Japan and her trading partners," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 483-489, December.
    3. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2007. "The S‐curve Dynamics of US Bilateral Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 430-439, May.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2014. "Brazil--US commodity trade and the J-Curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 1-13, January.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2010. "The J‐ and S‐curves: a survey of the recent literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(6), pages 580-596, November.
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2010. "S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 212-223, June.
    8. Senhadji, Abdelhak S., 1998. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in LDCs: The S-curve," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 105-131, October.
    9. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    10. Fabio Augusto Reis Gomes & Lourenco Senne Paz, 2005. "Can real exchange rate devaluation improve the trade balance? The 1990-1998 Brazilian case," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 525-528.
    11. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Malixi, Margaret, 1992. "More evidence on the J curve from LDCs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-653, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dene T. Hurley & Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2018. "An Investigation of China‐U.S. Bilateral Trade and Exchange Rate Changes Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(2), pages 162-179, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohsen Bahmani-oskooee & Hadise Fariditavana, 2014. "Do Exchange Rate Changes have Symmetric Effect on the S-Curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 164-173.
    2. Nabeela KOUSAR* & Muhammad Rizwan YASEEN** & Imran QAISER***, 2017. "THE S-CURVES DYNAMICS OF TRADE: The Case Study of Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 121-138.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2010. "S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 212-223, June.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Rodrigo Costamagna & Gustavo Rossini, 2016. "Competitive Devaluations in Commodity-Based Economies: Colombia and the Pacific Alliance Group," CESifo Working Paper Series 5907, CESifo.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2014. "Brazil--US commodity trade and the J-Curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 1-13, January.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2011. "S-curve dynamics of trade between Sweden and her trading partners," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 355-362, September.
    7. Javed Iqbal & Sareer Ahmad & Misbah Nosheen & Mark Wohar, 2023. "Empirical investigation of the S-curve phenomenon in Pakistan-China commodity trade," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1853-1864.
    8. Peguero, Anadel G. & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "Condición Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva J: Evidencias para la República Dominicana [Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-Curve Effect: Evidence for the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 71535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Hanafiah Harvey, 2018. "The U.S. Trade Balance with Partners from Developing World: An Asymmetry Analysis of the J-Curve Effect," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 29-44, June.
    10. Dene T. Hurley & Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2018. "An Investigation of China‐U.S. Bilateral Trade and Exchange Rate Changes Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(2), pages 162-179, June.
    11. Salah A. Nusair, 2017. "The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-27, January.
    12. Gour Gobinda Goswami & Sadaquat Junayed, 2006. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of the Bilateral Trade Balance Equation: USA vis-a-vis her Trading Partners," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 515-526.
    13. Sareer Ahmad & Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen & Mark Wohar, 2023. "Dynamics of the asymmetric S-curve between Pakistan and Japan," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 551-561, August.
    14. Ho Hoang Gia Bao & Hoang Phong Le, 2022. "The Roles of Vehicle Currency and Real Effective Exchange Rates in the Trade of Every ASEAN Member With the EU-28," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/243, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2019. "Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: new evidence from Korean bilateral trade balance models with her 14 partners," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 66-81, January.
    17. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tatchawan Kanitpong, 2017. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balances of Asian countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(46), pages 4668-4678, October.
    19. M Bahmani-Oskooee & A Ratha, 2009. "S-Curve Dynamics of Trade: Evidence from US-Canada Commodity Trade," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, March.
    20. Kimbugwe, Hassan, 2006. "The bilateral J-Curve hypothesis between Turkey and her 9 trading partners," MPRA Paper 4254, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:52:y:2015:i:1:p:79-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jaime Casassus (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iepuccl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.