Green Jobs. A critique of the occupational approach to measure the employment implications of the green transition

The green transition is set to transform labour markets, yet its impact remains difficult to measure. This paper critically examines the occupational approach—based on task-based measures—which is the most widely used framework among researchers and institutions for estimating green employment. First, we identify theoretical shortcomings in this approach, emphasizing that its reliance on occupational titles leads to false positives by misclassifying non-green jobs as green, while also producing false negatives by excluding key contributors to the green transition. Second, we highlight methodological issues, such as inconsistent categorizations, arbitrary task definitions, outdated classifications, and the flawed assumption that occupational content remains stable across time and countries. Third, we apply the occupational approach using the O*NET framework to quantify green employment in 24 European countries from 2011 to 2022. Our analysis reveals that, according to this method, there has been virtually no net creation of green jobs in Europe. Moreover, we find no meaningful correlation between the presence of green jobs and various aggregate and sectoral environmental indicators. These findings underscore the fundamental limitations of the occupational approach, suggesting that it is an inadequate tool for assessing the labour market effects of the green transition. We discuss how this measure is suitable for policy benchmarking in the context of the European green transition.