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African integration with global reach: spillover effects of AfCFTA non-tariff measure reforms

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Abstract

Using the MAGNET recursive-dynamic CGE model, we quantify AfCFTA non-tariff measure (NTM) reforms. We advance the methodology by modeling regulatory spillovers as public goods, deviating from standard Vinerian assumptions. Results indicate spillovers generate welfare gains up to 16 times larger than tariff cuts. However, a structural tradeoff emerges: while maximizing aggregate efficiency, spillovers reinforce comparative advantages in primary commodities, disproportionately benefiting resource-rich economies regardless of development status. We conclude that successful integration requires strategic sequencing of input harmonization and targeted adjustment funds to manage this efficiency-industrialization tension.

Suggested Citation

  • Simola Antti & Boysen Ole & Nechifor Victor & Ferrari Emanuele, 2025. "African integration with global reach: spillover effects of AfCFTA non-tariff measure reforms," JRC Working Papers on Economic Analysis of Policies for Africa 2025-12, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:eapoaf:202512
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank, 2020. "The African Continental Free Trade Area," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 34139, April.
    2. Terrie Walmsley & Anna Strutt, 2021. "A Comparison of Approaches to Modelling Non-Tariff Measures," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 6(1), pages 1-33, June.
    3. Mr. Lisandro Abrego & Maria Alejandra Amado & Tunc Gursoy & Garth P. Nicholls & Hector Perez-Saiz, 2019. "The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model," IMF Working Papers 2019/124, International Monetary Fund.
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