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Manufacturing Employment Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastián Claro

    (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

Abstract

The paper demonstrates that two relatively unknown features of the employment cycle in U.S. manufacturing industries can provide a clue to understanding the role of sectorial shocks in the evolution of aggregate employment. First, interindustry wage differentials rise in expansions and fall in contractions. Second, periods of increasing aggregate employment are associated with relatively good price and productivity shocks to capital-intensive sectors. The paper presents a simple general-equilibrium model where bargaining at the industry level and rents due to sector-specific capital generate a wage structure with higher wages in capital-intensive sectors but where the response of wages to sector-specific shocks is greater in labor intensive sectors. Empirical evidence is presented to support such implications of the model. The asymmetry of wage adjustments imply that aggregate employment responds more to shocks in capital-intensive industries and that procyclical wage differentials can only result from asymmetric disturbances.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastián Claro, 2002. "Manufacturing Employment Cycle," Documentos de Trabajo 212, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    • Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:212
    as

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    File URL: https://www.economia.uc.cl/docs/doctra/dt-212.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. John Haltiwanger & Steven J. Davis, 1999. "On the Driving Forces behind Cyclical Movements in Employment and Job Reallocation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1234-1258, December.
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    5. McLaughlin, Kenneth J & Bils, Mark, 2001. "Interindustry Mobility and the Cyclical Upgrading of Labor," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 94-135, January.
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    7. Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1215-1264, September.
    8. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert & Runkle, David, 1988. "Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Estimating the Impact of Heterogeneity with Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1232-1266, December.
    9. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A & Haltiwanger, John, 1997. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 115-137, March.
    10. Sebastián Claro, 2003. "Wages and Unemployment in the United States: Reviving a Wage Gap Explanation," Documentos de Trabajo 235, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    11. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 1-76.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastián Claro, 2003. "Wages and Unemployment in the United States: Reviving a Wage Gap Explanation," Documentos de Trabajo 235, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cyclical unemployment; interindustry wage differentials; sector-specific wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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