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Flexible inflation targeting: Concepts and application in India

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  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

The paper examines considerations that arise in adapting IT to emerging markets (EMs). These include the necessity of flexibility, the working of the expectations channel, the dominance of supply shocks, fiscal-monetary coordination, forecasting issues and guidance of thin markets. Implementation of inflation targeting in India has matured from a strict form that imposed a large output sacrifice, towards flexibility with better forecasting that kept inflation in the tolerance band, contributed to good growth recoveries as well as improved financial parameters in the first two years of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal, 2022. "Flexible inflation targeting: Concepts and application in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-003, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2022-003
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    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2022-003.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. Ashima Goyal & Shruti Tripathi, 2011. "New Keynesian aggregate supply in the tropics: food prices, wages and inflation," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(4), pages 330-354.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    4. Ashima Goyal & Shruti Tripathi, 2014. "Stability and Transitions in Emerging Market Policy Rules," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 153-172.
    5. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    6. Ashima Goyal & Prashant Parab, 2021. "Effectiveness of expectations channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    8. Goyal, Ashima & Kumar, Abhishek, 2018. "Active monetary policy and the slowdown: Evidence from DSGE based Indian aggregate demand and supply," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 21-40.
    9. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    10. Ashima Goyal, 2015. "Understanding High Inflation Trend in India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 4(1), pages 1-42, June.
    11. Goyal, Ashima, 2002. "Coordinating monetary and fiscal policies: a role for rules?," MPRA Paper 29200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2016. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate: A semi-structural approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 141-153.
    13. Allsop, Christopher & Vines, David, 2000. "The Assessment: Macroeconomic Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 1-32, Winter.
    14. Goyal, Ashima & Parab, Prashant, 2021. "What influences aggregate inflation expectations of households in India?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Ashima Goyal, 2018. "The Indian fiscal-monetary framework: Dominance or coordination?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2018-010, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Identifying efficient policy mix under different targeting regimes: A tale of two crises," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 975-994.
    2. Goyal, Ashima & Ray, Sritama, 2025. "Reducing supply shock-led inflation in emerging markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 2278-2301.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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