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Communication, Information and Inflation Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Borraz

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

  • Miguel Mello

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

Abstract

We identify differences in the formation of inflationary expectations, credibility, and prediction errors, depending on the communication and in the level of information of price setters. Estimating dynamic panel data models we identify the relevance of being informed about the inflation target and, about the current inflation rate. We also find that the tone of the monetary policy communication reinforces the bias imposed on the monetary instrument. Through the interaction of information about inflation target and range, and the tone of monetary policy statements of the Central Bank, we conclude that partially informed agents form their expectations differently from non-informed ones, have lower prediction errors, and are more skeptical respect to the inflation target.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Borraz & Miguel Mello, 2020. "Communication, Information and Inflation Expectations," Documentos de trabajo 2020005, Banco Central del Uruguay.
  • Handle: RePEc:bku:doctra:2020005
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Estadisticas-e-Indicadores/Documentos%20de%20Trabajo/5.2020.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. Gerardo Licandro & Miguel Mello, 2014. "Firm Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2014006, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    4. Serafín Frache & Rodrigo Lluberas, 2017. "New information and inflation expectations among firms," Documentos de trabajo 2017013, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    5. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
    6. Fernando Borraz & Laura Zacheo, 2018. "Inattention, Disagreement and Internal (In)Consistency of Inflation Forecasts," Documentos de trabajo 2018007, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    8. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    9. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    10. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
    11. Gerardo Licandro & Miguel Mello, 2015. "News and inflation expectation updates," Documentos de trabajo 2015008, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    12. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Andrew Haldane & Michael McMahon, 2018. "Central Bank Communications and the General Public," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 578-583, May.
    14. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Caruso-Bloeck, Martin & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2023. "News of disinflation and firms’ expectations: New causal evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Miguel Mello & Jorge Ponce, 2020. "Fiscal policy and inflation expectations," Documentos de trabajo 2020004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    3. Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2021. "The Inflation Expectations of U.S. Firms: Evidence from a new survey," NBER Working Papers 28836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Cruz, Christopher John, 2022. "Reduced macroeconomic volatility after adoption of inflation targeting: Impulses or propagation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 759-770.
    5. Carotta, Gianni & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2023. "Monetary policy communication and inflation expectations: New evidence about tone and readability," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    6. Diego Labat & Gerardo Licandro, 2021. "Towards a quality currency," Documentos de trabajo 2021005, Banco Central del Uruguay.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; credibility; inflation target; communication; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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