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Conflict resolution through mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian updating

  • Srijit Mishra


    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

If priors are deterministic (zero or unity) and conditional evidence is uncertain (lies between zero and one) then Bayesian updating will lead to posteriors that are the same as priors. This in a sense explains the persistence of fundamentalist belief. Under such a belief system, only if conditional evidence is deterministic and diametrically opposite to that of the prior then a process of change can set in. Conflict resolution is possible through dialogues that calls for mutual respect and allows reasonable pluralism - a Rawlsian prerequisite. If interaction is the basis then self-defeating scenarios can be avoided by giving space to others. Thus, in the political sphere one has to be accommodative.

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Paper provided by Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India in its series Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers with number 2011-001.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2011-001
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  1. Srijit Mishra, 2002. "Understanding fundamentalist belief through Bayesian updating," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2003-002, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  2. Alberto Baccini, 2001. "Frequentist Probability and Choice under Uncertainty," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 743-772, Winter.
  3. Llussá, Fernanda & Tavares, José, 2007. "Economics and Terrorism: What We Know, What We Should Know and the Data We Need," CEPR Discussion Papers 6509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Borgers, Tilman, 1996. "On the Relevance of Learning and Evolution to Economic Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1374-85, September.
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